Please dissect this drawing hand

[bobbyi]

Please don't construe my posting of this hand to be an endorsement of the specific actions taken by the protagonist (who is not me) nor as meaning that I think the hand was misplayed. I'm posting it because I think it is an interesting hand that can generate some good discussion.

You are playing in a nine-handed 20/40 at your local cardroom. For the past half hour, the game has been unusually tight with many hands having no flop and the large majority of flops taken three-handed or less. Compared to the online opponents you may be used to, the players tend to be more "honest" and conservative: less thin value bets, less tricky turn raises, etc. However, people are still capable of bluffing, betting their draws, etc.

Pre: UTG, UTG+1, UTG+2 limp. A couple folds and CO limps. You are on the button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and limp along. SB folds and BB checks.

All of these players are "typical" for the game, except for UTG+1 and UTG+2. UTG+1 is probably the worst player in the game as he veers towards being a calling station. He won't do anything ridiculous like call multiple bets cold on the big streets with hopeless hands, but he still pays off too much in spots anyone else in the game would know to fold. UTG+2 is unknown to you and joined the table recently, but is a young kid who seems to be somewhat more aggressive than the norm here.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. It's check to CO who bets. You call as do UTG, UTG+1 and UTG+2.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. It's again checked to CO who bets. You call, UTG folds and UTG+1 calls. UTG+2 now check-raises and you three all call.

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. It's checked to CO who bets and you call.

[shant]

I'd raise the river because the guy that checkraised the turn most likely isn't folding to two bets.

[winky51]

On the button? I'd raise here. 2nd nut flush, backdoor draw, 1 potential overcard (bad one). Try for the free card and to build your pot with so many callers. This flop is so coordinated that people would call a 3 bet I feel. 2 draws.

Since it was called the flop the turn would be a call since you want to keep everyone in and the same player bet twice. That tells me he has something. If everyone checks to you and that draw comes you might want to bet again. With 15 outs your 1 in 3 to win and you would still be getting odds if 2 people call which looks the case and it disguises your hand. If the 9 doesnt fall you can check.

River the overcall is fine as you don't want to scare others out.

My 2 cents.

[newhizzle]

i raise the flop, first of all, i think theres a good chance that these players will call your raise anyway, if not you clean up some pair outs hopefully, and you can buy yourself a free card, the only reason for calling would be to not knock out your customers, but i think the argument for raising outweighs the one for calling

the turn looks fine, not really much you can do differently

the river, i think is close, i dont think you will be check/raised again, if you call you are likely getting an extra big bet from UTG+1 and UTG+2, if you raise you may shut them out and only end up with an extra bet from CO, but also may get an extra 4 from these guys if your lucky, and they might not be calling anyway, i really dont know what is going to get you the most in the long-run, but im leaning toward raising

[mdob]

I also like a flop raise here. We've got about 10 outs here, making this enough for a value bet. It also potentially give us the option of taking a free card.

The turn check-raise, river check is a bit strange from the possibly over-aggressive UTG+2. I'd put his most likely hand as something like QT: a pair and OESD that he was trying to value bet. When he didn't hit a K, T, or 8 on the river, he knew he lost and checked intending to fold to a bet. Alternatively, if he already had a made hand, he'll probably call two on the river, so either way raising is better than calling here.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd raise the river because the guy that checkraised the turn most likely isn't folding to two bets.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why are you ignoring the presence of UTG+1 on the river? Given the player description, I think it is likely that he pays off for one one bet with whatever he has been calling down with so far but unlikely that he calls two cold once all three of his opponents have shown strength on the big bet streets.

[shant]

So I call, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls. I got 2BB extra.

I raise, UTG+1 folds more than calls, UTG+2 calls more than folds, and other homeboy calls. So I get 3BB extra.

Do you think the turn checkraiser folds the river? I know live players will say they know you hit the flush, but these same players rarely lay it down and pay off, especially after having checkraised the whole field on the turn.

[Borodog]

Perfect spot to go for overcalls.

[Greg J]

I like Hero's play on all streets.

1) I perfer people calling me on the flop here with my multiple draws, instead of facing the field with 2 cold. If I hit on the turn I am likely to be able to protect a big big hand in a big pot (CO might bet again). I like this more than an opportunity to get a free card I might not get anyhow.

2) I like going for overcalls on the river. This seems nearly ideal (unless there is some nuance I am missing -- if so someone is welcome to enlighten me). Given the read on UTG+1, I think he might call his mid pair or some crap, and UTG+2 is likely to call one but not 2 bets with his made straight. If you are this quiet the whole hand, and you raise this river, you might as well stand on the table and scream "YES!! I made my f-ing flush!!"

[private joker]

Count me in among those liking the river. You should get two overcalls by calling, but if you raise, the two guys you definitely have beaten will fold, and if CO made the nut flush, you'll get 3-bet and have to call it.