5-10 , winning % at showdown

[Harv72b]

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if I divide the 45k hands played in 5k hand blocks, the biggest variable of all stats is W%SD and I'm courious to see what others have.

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This will always be true. It's simply the luck factor creeping into the equation, and the smaller your sample size the greater an effect it will have on your numbers. But I'm sure you already know that, so I really don't get what you're asking.

If it matters at all (I don't believe it does), my W$SD is 53.31% on 5/10, although I only have about 10k hands in my current database. My WR is good.

[solidswede]

At some point you have to say that luck is not what's causing you not to win, rather it is something wrong with your play. And I think this stat is a good "red flag" to use. I.e if you after 10k hands where loosing but your w$sd at 60%, you have a huge leak, By the way I bet your W$sf is no less than 38.

[MyTurn2Raise]

there has been quite a discussion on this topic in short-handed over the past few weeks
W%SD cannot be viewed in isolation...it is heavily influenced by WTSD% among other things.

[solidswede]

absolutely, but I believe W%SD is the stat that has the biggest variance. I.e vpip, pfr, af, and WTSD% is not going to have a 6% point spread over a few thosand hands, but
W%SD may. That is why I want to look at it closer and hear what % other people are seeing.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
At some point you have to say that luck is not what's causing you not to win, rather it is something wrong with your play. And I think this stat is a good "red flag" to use. I.e if you after 10k hands where loosing but your w$sd at 60%, you have a huge leak, By the way I bet your W$sf is no less than 38.

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Over the longer run, when the luck factor evens out, your W$SD will balance out to (eventually) one which truly demonstrates your game play. Over the short run, which seems to be central to your question regarding variance in this statistic, your W$SD will be affected heavily by luck. Regardless, if you are winning the minimum when you do win at showdown, but losing the maximum, you will still be losing money even if your W$SD is closer to 70%. It's in this manner that W$SD becomes a good statistic for analyzing your play--when compared to your VPIP, WTSD, and WR (among other things), it can give you a pretty fair indicator of how well you are playing postflop. You can (and will) play just as well as you normally do over a 5k or even 15k hand sample and still end up with a W$SD that is considerably lower than your norm, if you're catching cold cards & getting sucked out on a lot. However, if your normal W$SD is much lower or higher than what is considered good (generally, 51-57%, although I aim for 52-55%), this is indicative of leaks in your game. Even with those same leaks, you can still run well over a decent-sized sample of hands and end up with a "perfect" W$SD.

My W$SF is over that 10k hand span is only slightly higher than my overall number, which is around 40%.

[solidswede]

Well said. We are finally getting somewhere. I'm trying to find out what the norm is and it has to be a more narrow range than 50-57%. Your expected range of 52-55 indicates to me that you go to showdown about 33%?
With your stats W$SD at 53% and W$SF at 40% you should be winning at 5-10, but if you were losing with those stats it would indicate a leak.
I want to have these indicators as narrow as possible when I go to bigger games. So I can quickly asses whether I'm running bad or my game is not good enough. Granted they will probaly change a little as you move up from 5-10/10-20 to 30-60 with more hu pots

[Harv72b]

This thread deals only with numbers from 2/4 & 3/6 full ring, but it should help out a little in figuring out what kind of numbers other, winning players are posting in LHE. Just keep in mind that different playing styles can result in some pretty different stat sets, even while both players post healthy win rates.

I do aim for a WTSD of around 33%. But, as you said, it does change as you move up in levels and find yourself in HU pots more often against tricky, aggressive players.