ATo in MP with lots of blind money in - raise it up???

MisterKing · #1 06-20-2005, 01:35 AM

I normally instamuck ATo in all but super late position, and even then I'm only playing if I'm the one opening the pot or otherwise face very favorable conditions. That said, this seemed like a possible exception.

My thinking was: I have a definite equity edge against essentially four random hands, and while I'm out of position against the two guys I fear most in the hand, I will often know very well where I stand on the flop if I raise it up pre-flop and am not re-raised by either of the LP posters. With 4.4SB in the pot and action folded to me, I just saw too many loose dollars available not to go after them with my above average starter.

Here are the relevant reads: I've played against MP3 before and noted that he's somewhat tricky, not to mention aggressive in position. He comes in at 22/7/2 over a somewhat small sample. CO is TAGish from the hands I've seen personally, at 17.5/10.5/2, and the data mining guys at PokerEdge confirm that status over a larger sample. SB is average/passive, at 28/2/1, and BB is a maniacal retard, at 36/20/1.9. I've seen him chase badly once or twice, and he's prone to pay off hands he's crushed by all the way.

So, what's the verdict pre-flop? And once hero has made the play, what's the best way to manage the unexpectedly large field with TPDK?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $5. CO posts a blind of $7.
4 folds, Hero raises, MP3 (poster) calls, CO (poster) calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, MP3 raises, CO folds, SB folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Raising seemed attractive here, but not as attractive as raising a non-club turn. Clubs are going to have the odds to continue even if I do raise the flop, and I'm pretty damned sure it'll be bet to me on the turn (recall my read on BB), so I decide to wait...

Turn: (8.20 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, MP3 folds, BB calls.

River: (12.20 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 14.20 BB

Harv72b · #2 06-20-2005, 02:09 AM

Nice hand. I agree with your thinking on every street. The only nit I can pick is that clubs will obviously have the odds to continue when you raise the turn, too, but it just makes more sense to charge them on the more expensive street (and avoid putting in extra bets should a club turn come).

ArturiusX · #3 06-20-2005, 03:25 AM

If they've got clubs, they aint going away no matter what. Raise the flop.

aK13 · #4 06-20-2005, 03:29 AM

I'm open-raising ATo in MP everytime.

I also raise ATo in MP against 1-2 EP limpers...I'm pretty sure it is, but I can be swayed.

Malachii · #5 06-20-2005, 03:57 AM

Raise the flop. Why didn't you? You want a hand like KJ, KQ, or QJ out!

kslghost · #6 06-20-2005, 04:49 AM

I like the play on the turn and river (nice river too).

As for the theory, I do like the idea, but I'm not sure that raising here will be that great of an equity push. The "dead" money means they are getting double odds in position on you. I think that raising has the immediate effect of pushing the slight edge you may have, but I don't know that on later streets you will maintain any sort of advantage and in fact you may often be losing money because of position. Also, the fact that their calling your raise was also probably correct doesn't make this much happier.

Luckily, your flop was ok, and your river probably probably assures your win, but I don't know if this is a winning play long term, out of position. Timely folds postflop will make this play a little more viable, but I'm not particularly keen on the math of all this (and I don't quite feel like busting out spreadsheets at 2 am :-D ).

Anyways, good luck!

MisterKing · #7 06-20-2005, 09:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop. Why didn't you? You want a hand like KJ, KQ, or QJ out!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but are you at all concerned about what a flop raise will do to my ability to protect my hand on the turn? And have you considered the fact that one club gutshot broadway draws probably have the odds to call two cold on this flop?

A hand like KcJs has 5.5 effective outs, and would be getting 13:2 or 6.5:1 to call. Though this is about one SB short of the raw odds they need to call, the implied odds surely put them in the clear. It isn't much better for me if someone has the Qc with another broadway card, since they can add the backdoor flush outs to the trips and two pair outs. Raising the flop sucks for these reasons, IMO. There are as many hands I tie to the pot that I want out as there are that I force out that can call when I just call. Waiting to raise until the turn does risk a cheaper turn card beating me, but it also helps me blow ALL of these hands out when a safe card falls.

MisterKing · #8 06-20-2005, 09:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm open-raising ATo in MP everytime.

I also raise ATo in MP against 1-2 EP limpers...I'm pretty sure it is, but I can be swayed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I'm listening -- what games are you playing? The open-raise sounds much more attractive than the raise after limpers. The trouble for me is the threat of domination with ATo, and the fact that many low-stakes jackasses don't 3-bet with hands like AJs, AQo, AKo, etc. -- meaning I might hit and still not know where I stand, paying off while behind the whole way. Now, these "jackasses" are profitable to play against, don't get me wrong, but there are certain plays that I think are ok to leave out against them, and raising ATo in MP seems to be one that isn't a big sacrifice.

wrto4556 · #9 06-20-2005, 09:28 AM

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Yes, but are you at all concerned about what a flop raise will do to my ability to protect my hand on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're misunderstanding what "protecting" your hand means. It's not to get people to fold, it's to give people incorrect odds to draw. A raise on the flop does that. Raising the turn would be to get more value out of your hand. Personally, I don't think you hand is strong enough.

The raise preflop is pretty standard for me.

MisterKing · #10 06-20-2005, 10:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, but are you at all concerned about what a flop raise will do to my ability to protect my hand on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're misunderstanding what "protecting" your hand means. It's not to get people to fold, it's to give people incorrect odds to draw. A raise on the flop does that. Raising the turn would be to get more value out of your hand. Personally, I don't think you hand is strong enough.

The raise preflop is pretty standard for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, no I am not misunderstanding anything here. I am 100% unable to offer incorrect odds on the flop via a raise. I've outlined that fact. If I raise the flop one card crub frush and gutshot straight combo draws will have the odds to call that bet AND a turn bet. If I just call the flop, I can offer these hands incorrect odds to call (and thus PROTECT my hand) with a turn raise. Look at the pot and make your case, because I don't think you have a leg to stand on.