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  #11  
Old 07-13-2005, 11:53 AM
Watain Watain is offline
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Default Re: JTo in the BB

Preflop >> I would fold, so says the SSHE chart.

Flop >> Lets say you are in front 5% of the times in this situation. That gives a pot equity of 5% = 0,5 sb. (The redraws are kind a breakeven for all players so i didnīt adjust the pot equity for this).

One small bet is only ― a bet then, so therefore i think you should continue. But i donīt think raising would be the way to do it. You canīt scare a better hand out than ours (a Q would fold, and a J with a better kicker than yours also have a straight draw.) So call.

Turn > Looks good.

River > I have no idea. I would call for sanity, but the problem is that if SB is playing games you still have UTG+1 there. I think one should fold, but thats tough...
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  #12  
Old 07-13-2005, 12:11 PM
Sir Bruce Sir Bruce is offline
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Default Re: JTo in the BB

Fold this pre-flop, but you already knew that. Flop raise is good, textbook-case of protecting your hand. Raise the turn! Your hand has improved, and you may force out MP1 and get a free showdown. I'd call the river bet - the pot's too big to fold for one bet.
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  #13  
Old 07-13-2005, 12:17 PM
crownjules crownjules is offline
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Default Re: JTo in the BB

Yuck on the flop raise. First question you have to ask yourself is this: what do you think SB is betting? I would say the great majority of the time he's betting top pair or better, meaning that you are drawing. If you had a read on SB that he was very LAGish, and therefore may NOT be betting at least top pair, then a raise would be acceptable. But since you have no such read, I would have to assume he's got a pair of queens or better. A raise will usually knock out all the people you want to stay in so that they pad the pot while you continue to draw.

All that being said, you hit the flop fairly well and I would just call. The turn improves you to an OESD, giving you 10 outs, so that's another call. River is self-evident.

EDIT: Didn't even see the PF raise from SB. Calling preflop is fine with so many (likely) in the pot.
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  #14  
Old 07-13-2005, 12:28 PM
RcrdBoy RcrdBoy is offline
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Default Re: JTo in the BB

I think the PF call is fine.

I would fold the flop. MP Tkicker and some tainted draws don't excite me.
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  #15  
Old 07-13-2005, 12:28 PM
Shillx Shillx is offline
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Default Re: JTo in the BB

[ QUOTE ]
Yuck on the flop raise. First question you have to ask yourself is this: what do you think SB is betting? I would say the great majority of the time he's betting top pair, meaning that you are drawing. If you had a read on SB that he was very LAGish, and therefore may NOT be betting top pair, then a raise would be acceptable. But since you have no such read, I would have to assume he's got a pair of queens. A raise will usually knock out all the people you want to stay in so that they pad the pot while you continue to draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the Jim Brier argument that, IMHO, doesn't really apply to many situations. The only times that I will just call in these spots are when a rock bets and when a solid player fires into a large field since he will not be (for example) betting AK into a J97 rainbow flop with 6 other people in the pot. When an unknown bets into a large pot after raising PF, you can't make any kind of assumptions. There are tons of hands that we would like people behind us to throw away, and the pot isn't at the point where people will be calling all the way with a gutshot or bottom pair (correctly at least).

Original Poster: This hand is beautiful IMO.

Brad
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  #16  
Old 07-13-2005, 12:35 PM
crownjules crownjules is offline
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Default Re: JTo in the BB

[ QUOTE ]
This is the Jim Brier argument that, IMHO, doesn't really apply to many situations. The only times that I will just call in these spots are when a rock bets and when a solid player fires into a large field since he will not be (for example) betting AK into a J97 rainbow flop with 6 other people in the pot. When an unknown bets into a large pot after raising PF, you can't make any kind of assumptions. There are tons of hands that we would like people behind us to throw away, and the pot isn't at the point where people will be calling all the way with a gutshot or bottom pair (correctly at least).

Original Poster: This hand is beautiful IMO.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I failed to notice that SB had raised PF when I originally posted, which made my entire reply FUBAR.
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  #17  
Old 07-13-2005, 12:40 PM
nomadtla nomadtla is offline
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Default Re: JTo in the BB

SSH says to drop this sort of hand to a raise preflop, and I tend to agree. Though what I say and what I do are totally different sometimes. If I had reads I'd call but on first orbit I might drop it. Your imdeiate odds are 5:1 but your implied odds on just this round are 7-8:1 in my opinion
The flop is good.
I think I'd raise on the turn as well (you've gotten more outs). This is super-micros so it's hard to put a player on a hand.
Reasons to raise the turn:
1 Makes a K or 8 call 2 (getting 4.5:1), so hopefully folds them thus giving you your 3 outs to your T again.
2 This guy might still be on a draw himself
3 It might buy you a free showdown
4 He may be betting a weaker Jack
I think the river fold is weak/tight you only have to be right 8% of the time for this to be a good call here. The pots to big. Pay it off.
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  #18  
Old 07-13-2005, 12:40 PM
deception5 deception5 is offline
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Default Re: JTo in the BB

Anyone who is suggesting folding this preflop needs to look more carefully at the odds hero is getting here. With 4 others in this pot your equity is certainly over 10% here.

I love the flop play - it's rarely correct to just call when the player to your right bets. If things go well you might even be offered a free look at the river here.

I think you played this hand perfectly.
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  #19  
Old 07-13-2005, 12:40 PM
GTSamIAm GTSamIAm is offline
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Default Re: JTo in the BB

Fold PF, you're not suited and easily dominated.

Raise on flop isn't necessarily a good idea. You are probably drawing against SB. He bets first to act against a big field with a PF raiser. He definitely has at least a queen. Your raise usually forces out people who are weaker than you and keeps in those stronger than you. Call here. It could be raised behind you, but you will probably get odds to put in two small bets to see the turn. There will be other loose players to pad the pot. The pot will need to be about 17 SB if you put in two SB, which it probably will be even if the pot is raised once. If the table is especially aggressive, fold in case of a three-bet.

Turn is fine.

EDIT: I thought button raised, not SB. Since SB raised he could be betting unimproved. Raise on flop is definitely in order to try and fold weak queens and shorthand the pot.
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  #20  
Old 07-13-2005, 12:56 PM
deception5 deception5 is offline
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Default Re: JTo in the BB

[ QUOTE ]
Reasons to raise the turn:
1 Makes a K or 8 call 2 (getting 4.5:1), so hopefully folds them thus giving you your 3 outs to your T again.
2 This guy might still be on a draw himself
3 It might buy you a free showdown
4 He may be betting a weaker Jack
I think the river fold is weak/tight you only have to be right 8% of the time for this to be a good call here. The pots to big. Pay it off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising the turn would be spewing.

1.) We're paying way too much here for this possible small increase in equity. The bettor only needs to call one more.
2.) So are we...
3.) We're not too concerned about a free showdown here. Calling here will make it more likely that we'll be bet into on the river when our hand may have improved (and we can raise or go for an overcall).
4.) There aren't too many jacks here that we're beating. It's somewhat optimistic to put the preflop raiser on J8 or worse. Not really enough of an edge to be pushing. Keep in mind he raised the field from the SB. And bet into us again after the flop raise.

We have to be right that we are ahead of both other players 8% of the time. It's arguable that this is the case but calling the river is not a huge leak.
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