Turned Trips but the Other Guy Keeps Betting

Harv72b · #1 12-09-2005, 11:28 PM

Reads are crucial in this hand, so don't just skim the following paragraphs. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

The table in general ain't so great, and is playing pretty tight and aggressive (although you can't tell from this hand). I'm doing what I do too often--sticking it out for a few more orbits after getting stuck early (chasing losses--I am teh suck). MP2 (the villain) is 16/9/5 over a 100 hand sample; I don't have any notes on him, which means he hasn't done anything unusual over that span. UTG+1 is a solid TAG from several hundred hands; if he's limping from EP on this table, he's either got a medium pocket pair or suited paint. The other players don't matter in this hand, although SB being the lone donk at the table (65/7 over ~50 hands) factored into my decision to limp behind preflop.

Two hands prior I had 3-bet an MP3 openraise from the button with KJs, and been capped by the SB. Both of us called, and SB led at an AJX flop, MP3 folded, I called, called his bet when I turned trip jacks, and only raised after spiking quads on the river (he made a pretty bad crying call with KK). I mention that hand because it was undoubtedly still fresh in the minds of everyone at the table, and is obviously the opposite strategy from what I used here.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, MP2 calls.

River: (13 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero...?

Call or raise? And if we're 3-bet after raising?

silkyslim · #2 12-09-2005, 11:36 PM

whats with the call on the flop??? Pot is big enough to raise this, no? does villain limp JJ? does he bet A6 on the flop? i dont see what villain could reasonably have besides 3 pair. He needs to 3 bet your raise since tards do this alot when the board pairs. I dont get the continuation river bet, maybe he doesnt believe you. Id raise/call here expecting to see KJ.

#3 12-09-2005, 11:41 PM

KJ I think is the only possible hand he can have. I would raise/call a 3-bet.

Harv72b · #4 12-09-2005, 11:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
whats with the call on the flop???

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting correct immediate odds to continue with my 5-outer plus backdoor flush draw, and am utterly convinced that I do not have the best hand at this point in time.

silkyslim · #5 12-10-2005, 12:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
whats with the call on the flop???

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting correct immediate odds to continue with my 5-outer plus backdoor flush draw, and am utterly convinced that I do not have the best hand at this point in time.

[/ QUOTE ]
im not saying fold im going on SSH style raising to improve winning chances. you can fold some better hands and buy outs so that if you improve it wont be to a 2nd best hand or give people redraws. based on your reads though, i can see why you just called. can u explain this move more for my benefit?

Harv72b · #6 12-10-2005, 12:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
im not saying fold im going on SSH style raising to improve winning chances. you can fold some better hands and buy outs so that if you improve it wont be to a 2nd best hand or give people redraws. based on your reads though, i can see why you just called. can u explain this move more for my benefit?

[/ QUOTE ]

With the size of the pot, a raise is almost never going to fold top pair (maybe a weak top pair from the BB). It's not going to buy me the 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] as an out, because a flush draw isn't folding no matter what I do. About the only time it could potentially buy me any outs is when someone is in the pot with a better six, which might happen about as often as I get laid (which is to say, not that often).

Besides which, with the nature of the flop and the size of the field, this almost certainly hit someone better than it did me. By raising, I open myself up to the possibility of being 3-bet (even by a worse hand; i.e., flush draw), which I would then be forced to call with the escalating pot odds/potential of it being a draw. And, finally, I can't think of a better hand to illustrate when you're willing to peel one card on the flop but will gladly toss your hand UI to a turn bet; while the flop bettor is easily aggressive enough to have bet a flush draw there, even if that's the case he almost certainly has 15 outs twice to beat me.

Jake (The Snake) · #7 12-10-2005, 12:55 AM

I know that there aren't really many hands that he can have that beats you based on preflop, but once he sees all that turn action he has to fear a 6. Once he leads the river I'm just calling.

I also think the flop is pretty close to a fold. I'd estimate 5 outs for Hero which is about enough but we have to consider that the pot will get raised behind us... especially on this kind of board. Implied odds might make it a call but I think it's close.

SNOWBALL138 · #8 12-10-2005, 01:01 AM

Would he limp with a better six? A6s (diamonds maybe?) could maybe play like this, but I'm mostly doubting that possibility.

Pocket eights play this way? no, never.

Uhhh, would he limp JJ or KK? Not usually, but its possible he missed a limp-reraise attempt with KK, or AA. He never has JJ here, right?
con
KJ might play like this on the turn, especially given the possibility that he noticed your slowplay with the trip jacks. Maybe he's losing that session, and convincing himself that you were free showdown capping?

This is so iffy. Its really hard to find a smoking gun and have an "aha!" moment with this hand.

I think its close between raising and calling a 3 bet, and just calling. I like raising and calling a 3-bet a little better than calling, just because its really hard to put him on a hand that beats you, and I can totally see a guy with his stats having an almost complete aversion to the idea of check/calling the river.

QTip · #9 12-10-2005, 01:39 AM

Yeah. This is certainly weird. A 5 AF is certainly ridiculous, but can't put a ton of stock in that over 100 hands.

I'm going to wus out here and just call the river bet. I've just seen too much stupid stuff and a 3 bet is going to make me sick. We've just shown so much strength, the 6 is so obvious and he simply does not seem to care.

Harv72b · #10 12-10-2005, 03:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah. This is certainly weird. A 5 AF is certainly ridiculous, but can't put a ton of stock in that over 100 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should mention that because I'm a retard, I didn't even notice the sample size until after the hand, so I was perhaps putting more emphasis on my read than I should have as it played out. Of course it's really hard to notice a glaring number superimposed on the table below the guy's name.