I hit my draw...now what?

[W. Deranged]

Definitely bet.

My question is whether to three-bet a raise or call and hope for a double overcall from the dude in the middle.

If we raised and get capped, we may likely be screwed, and that's lame.

If we simply call, we may well get the same bet from the middle dude with lower risk. I don't see middle dude calling two cold on the river that often here, unless he has the case A. Who knows. He may not call the raise anyway, so we might be missing value. Who knows.

Damn this is tough. Flip a coin. Without reads I just end up having little opinion here.

With a gun to my head I guess I'll say three-bet, though.

[pokernicus]

I also prefer a bet/3-bet rather than a bet/call.

There are two things you are trying to evaluate (assuming you have the best hand...):

- The likelihood that the middle guy will call one bet.
- The likelihood that the CO will call two bets.

If the first event is more likely, then you want to go for the bet/call. If the second event is more likely, you want to go for the bet/3-bet.

To me it seems that anyone holding an Ace will likely call two bets here. On the other hand, someone with KK (or some such hand) which might what the middle guy has, could easily fold. And, even if he were willing to call one bet, he might also be willing to call two bets.

Also, if you 3-bet, it's even possible that
1) The middle guy will cold-call
2) the CO will four-bet

In either case you'll earn extra. There's a small possibility you're behind to a boat, but I think it's a small enough possibility that you need to take the risk and bet/raise for value.

[Harv72b]

Wow...I'm a little suprised by all the bet/3-bet proponents; this wasn't even one of the lines that I was thinking of. I think I regurgitate many lunches in preturbance if I get capped by CO (unless he does it with AK or something).

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
PS. Still getting my Brazillian wax you saw me taking earlier at $5-$10. Come back and join the fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

I decided to quit while I was ahead for the night. $7.50. Woohoo. I think I'll supersize lunch tomorrow. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[PTjvs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like this too. Could somebody going with bet/call explain why it is better than bet/3bet?

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Because even a donk may lay down KK-JJ to a 2nd and 3rd bet and we're going to get capped against MPs FH. So, we're basically freerolling that once we get raised on the river MP has trips and not a FH. (And I think he has a FH over half the time.)

-d

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I think he has a FH way less than half the time. If he has a FH, he has an underfull on a flopped set & may not even cap it. Ask yourself though, do guys who cold call 33 fastplay their flopped sets? In my experience, they do not, and he has a FH here almost never.

jvs

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he has a FH way less than half the time. If he has a FH, he has an underfull on a flopped set & may not even cap it. Ask yourself though, do guys who cold call 33 fastplay their flopped sets? In my experience, they do not, and he has a FH here almost never.

jvs

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I gotta disagree. CO is holding A3/A4 a huge % of the time. His line definitely matches with top two turned into a boat, although it could just as easily be AT/A9 type hands for mere trips. In any case, the guy has got to be pretty aggressive for me to want to bet/3bet. Middle guy is clearly going to call if you bet/call...

[meep_42]

I meant that he has a FH over half the time he raises our river donkbet.

-d

[somapopper]

He cold called a utg raise. If he did it with a3 or a4, that's terrible, and you shouldn't assume he's lousy until he proves he is. Doing it with 33 or 44 is also bad, but players seem to do this all the time. However, few players play their sets this fast. He should have aq-at or a timid ak.

[Harv72b]

I think some people are missing the fact that there were already two coldcallers when CO coldcalled preflop. With 3 players already in and good position relative the PFR, that's a pretty standard call with any pocket pair.

[JacksonTens]

Does anyone else like a 3bet on the flop. Or am I just obsessed with jamming draws into large fields.

I donk/3bet. Mainly to get the guy stuck in the middle.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]