Weird TT hand...do I have a river value bet here?

Harv72b · #1 09-27-2005, 03:33 PM

No read on BB; he hadn't gotten out of line in ~20 hands so far. I was playing pretty solid TAG but also winning a lot of hands without a showdown, including the one just before this one (PFR got me HU with a donk, who folded to my turn bet).

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 4 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, CO folds, BB caps, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (9.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...?

toss · #2 09-27-2005, 03:37 PM

I'm checking behind. 88,99 are both possible, but his flop cap makes me feel like he has JJ or even better. I also fear a CR.

Edit: Now that NickC pointed out that villain may be counterfeited I want to Bet/fold.

Nick C · #3 09-27-2005, 03:40 PM

Hmm. Well, I guess maybe BB just got counterfeited.

Or maybe he made a boat and decided to check because he improved. Or maybe he just has the pair and OESD he had all along (except that now it's queens up).

It's possible that I'd be confused enough that I'd just take the showdown. But I suspect betting is better. Part of the reason I'd hesitate, though, is that I'd hate to get checkraised here but would probably call a checkraise, out of confusion.

sean c · #4 09-27-2005, 03:46 PM

I think this is an easy bet. The only hand I think your possibly behind here is JJ. His flopped two pair are no longer any good he wouldn't have slowed down with a set on the turn and the only other holdings I think we can put him on is a small or mid PP or possible piece of the board with a straight draw. I just really can't come up with what your behind here.

Ignore I mis read the action thought you bet the turn Harv. I am a dumb ass.

thesharpie · #5 09-27-2005, 03:47 PM

I also check behind. Although he could have flopped 2 pair, sets seem more likely when you think most people wouldn't play 76o here. He also might not pay off a river bet with flopped 2 pair if he's good.

KDawgCometh · #6 09-27-2005, 04:33 PM

I'm inclined to check behind. I think that it could be likely that he'd cr you, and his flop action looks like a set to me(of course he could've had top two and just been counterfieted, but I don't think that you're good here 55% of the time to bet)

newhizzle · #7 09-27-2005, 05:34 PM

i dont know how loose he is, but it looks to me that he may have had some kind of two pair that is now [censored], i think you can bet

private joker · #8 09-27-2005, 05:51 PM

Yeah, this looks a lot like 76/75/65 that was jamming either 2 pair or TP w/ straight draw, then gave up on the river when he either missed or got counterfeited. I think you can bet, but I think you have to fold to a checkraise. He'll pay you off with 76, though, so I'd bet.

Why are people saying check behind -- are they not going to fold to a raise?

Carmine · #9 09-27-2005, 05:53 PM

You 3-bet the flop and called the turn. I think this guy knows you have more than overs here. His 67 just got counterfeited. If he somehow flopped a str8 he won't C/R fearing you may have filled up. He could have realized by now his A7 is probably no good (many will find it hard not to call a bet though). He didn't hit his OESD or OESD and TP. He hasn't gotton OUL in 20 hands so not a top candidate to bluff-raise. I think you can Bet/Fold this river and still sleep soundly tonight.

Jake (The Snake) · #10 09-27-2005, 06:10 PM

I think you can bet this one as long as you fold to a c/r.

His flop play pretty much restricts him to a set, two pair, or a 5... maybe a strangely played AA/KK.

You would love for the two pair and 5 hands to pay you off now that they are counterfeited.

He has shown nothing but strength so far and then checks the river, do you think he is going to c/r you with a worse hand now that queens just paired? I really don't think so.