2/4: TT vs YvetteS

[MrEngenic]

YvetteS plays all the time. I've checked her out in PT and gone through some hands she has played.

If you raise this turn, I think she would fold AK if that's what you are after. I also think she would not 3bet a better overpair so you will get your free showdown.
I would play this the same.

Edited to say that I think she would fold AK against me but I don't know if she has a read on you.

[SippinSoma]

I think the pot is too big to protect on the flop. The only hand here that I can probably fold out is a single overcard. It's doubtful I can fold anything else. If I raise and get called, I've bloated the pot enough so that AK can see a turn and river. AK is the hand I can possibly fold at one street or another which has the most equity against me. I want AKo out. I'm folding to a turn 3-bet and taking a free showdown.

[gopnik]

I really just like calling the turn here. I don't want to get 3-bet by a better hand and I want AK bet into me again on the river. I bet the river if checked to.

[Entity]

Ok -- so the deal is this:

You think your villain can have AK here and you'd like her/him to fold. She won't. After you raise the pot is 10.5BB and your range is effectively JJ/TT, meaning if villain even thinks for half a second he realizes he has 6 outs and is calling. You lose not only bets but potential equity (when you get 3-bet and have to fold) to AA/KK/QQ/JJ, and you lose even more if villain is retardedly overaggressive and can 3-bet semibluff you with AKh or AQh, or can see your line as a raise with TT/JJ and can 3-bet TT to get you to fold. Your line is fairly transparent and if villain is any good at all it's not doing anything but extracting some value that you may have gotten from AK on the river anyway.

Rob

[SackUp]

I usually pop the flop. I want the other dude out of there and I want to see what is going on with preflopper. He is not 3betting AK oop here. I just hate calling down

[Shillx]

Hey Soma,

Doing some very boring work game theory right now so I thought I'd check out SS. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I would certainly just calldown against very aggressive players. Your equity changes very little from street to street, so there is no need to get a raise in like you would against a potential draw. In fact, your equity (roughly 35%) goes up as the hand plays on provided that an ace or king doesn't slide off. A big reason to call is that you lose less when you get outdrawn (i.e. you can fold on a 5th street ace) on the river and you don't give up a chance to spike a ten when you get 3-bet.

It becomes a bit more tricky against people who will not always bet the river with a hand worse then TT. Since they tend to check/call those hands instead, it really isn't too much of a concern. I doubt it would even be correct to raise against someone who played very well (i.e. does a lot of checking on the river, with both good and bad hands), but that would be an interesting GT idea for someone to look at. I don't suspect that any one plays this well for it to be useful anyway.

Brad

[me454555]

[ QUOTE ]
His stats are suggesting he's a good player. He is not 3-betting you OOP with AK. If you didn't raise the flop you should defenitely raise the turn and fold to a reraise. To just call down is terrible

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems like your going to spend 2 bbs either so I dont see why raising the turn is superior. I like seeing showdowns w/hands like these and I believe it is very unlikely that we are ahead here. W/that being said I certainly dont want to give my opponent the chance to push me off a better hand if he's overplaying a hand like 88. I dont see a point in punishing him if he's got AK b/c he's calling your raise and folding the river if he misses. If he hits he bets the river and you call losing you an extra bb. If you just call down, you lose 2 bbs when he hits on the river and will likely win the same amount when he check calls the river as he is likely to do given the size of the pot. On top of that, by calling the turn, you can fold the river if an A hits and he leads into you saving you a BB if you choose to go that line

Another advantage to calling down is that it allows you to hit your T on the river and gain extra value rather than folding on the turn and forgoing that equity. If the pot were smaller, I think raising the turn would be fine but in a big pot like this, seeing showdowns is usually the way to go.

[W. Deranged]

Basically, here are the things we need to consider:

1. If we raise the flop and get three-bet, can we be done with the hand? Namely, will we get three-bet with AK OOP ever?

2. If we wait until the turn, is the value of getting a possible AK to pay now (when he wouldn't pay the river) more valuable than the amount we forgo by folding our set-out-equity if three-bet on the turn? (I think the answer is basically "no!" If we raise the turn and get three-bet, the value of our set outs is almost .5 BB. If Yvette has AK, she may well check-call the river anyway trying to avoid being bluffed out).

So, basically I think this line is definitely not as good as just calling down the turn and the river. I think raising the flop and letting the hand go to further aggression may be even better if we can be confident Yvette will never mess with us and three-bet the flop with an inferior hand. So I decide between those two options based on my knowledge of Yvette's flop aggression (I have a few hands on Yvette but not enough memory of her play to comment on this).

[Pharity]

Heh, i actually misread the hand. My apologies, i thought SB was still in the hand. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[Buckmulligan]

I'm folding the flop. Do you think a TAG's throwing AK at us on the flop? The turn raise only protects against AK, and I think we can be fairly confident that AK isn't what villain holds.

So I'm apparently wrong on the fold. I'm just saying; what do we beat here on the flop when yvette leads?