OESD turned middle pair paired board

thesharpie · #1 05-12-2005, 07:12 AM

MP2 is semi LAGish over 20 hands, 40/12/3 AF. UTG+1 is a 75/0 cat food. I wish he was on my right. [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] Can I find a bet somewhere? Lead the river and fold to a raise?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $1.
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 raises, 4 folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

imported_leader · #2 05-12-2005, 07:21 AM

I'd lead the flop. then you will have at least some idea if your Q or J are any good. Plus deception. since you C/C'ed, I'd lead the turn. If raised call and fold the river UI.

thesharpie · #3 05-12-2005, 07:28 AM

We're going to have to call the turn even if we find out our Q and J aren't good. It's not a bad semi bluff bet but I don't think they're going to fold much, and the aggressive player could raise with some ace high leading us to think our Q&Js aren't good when they really are...

imported_leader · #4 05-12-2005, 07:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
We're going to have to call the turn even if we find out our Q and J aren't good. It's not a bad semi bluff bet but I don't think they're going to fold much, and the aggressive player could raise with some ace high leading us to think our Q&Js aren't good when they really are...

[/ QUOTE ]

Which A-high does he have that would make our Q and J good? A9-A2 I think it's safer to assume that he's not raising these PF after two limpers. His PFR is 12 not 20.

Nfinity · #5 05-12-2005, 07:50 AM

I think you lead the flop. If you get raised in this case, how does leading again when the Q turns sound? Your showing the aggressive player you mean business. Of course it could lead you into a false sense of security when he calls with a K, fearing your straight or trips, but you gain a little more information if he raises, so you can confidently Check-fold the flop UI.

imported_leader · #6 05-12-2005, 07:52 AM

I think you might have stumbled into why betting out the flop is wrong. Our Q and J are almost never good here. In his range of possible holdings AA-77 AK-AT KQ-KJ QJ, we are no good the vast majority of the time. I think that a C/C-C/C-fold unimproved would be best here.

A_C_Slater · #7 05-12-2005, 07:52 AM

Is it so inconceivable to think that by leading out on the flop you can win it right then and there?

imported_leader · #8 05-12-2005, 07:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is it so inconceivable to think that by leading out on the flop you can win it right then and there?

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG+1 has a VPiP of 75 and an AF of 0

A_C_Slater · #9 05-12-2005, 08:00 AM

Isn't the 0 an aggression stat? (I don't have PT) if that's the case it doesn't show his fold frequency.

thesharpie · #10 05-12-2005, 08:03 AM

The 0 is his PFR. His AF was < 0.5.

He seemed to have the check/call button ticked alot of the time, including this time he called instantly everystreet.