Its not about odds.

[tessarji]

Odds are indeed pretty stupid. In fact, I recommend avoiding math and game theory considerations altogether.

It's best to play by first seeing into your opponents soul. Then go from there.

Mcot,

Had you said "It’s not about odds" and went on to give the following example I think everyone here would have agreed.

11 players left in a satellite tournament were the top 10 win an entry into a big event. You are in second chip position with 900,000 and there are 2 short stacks with 10,000. The blinds are 5,000 and 10,000. The chip leader with 1,000,000 chips goes all in and it is folded to you. You hold AA. The correct play is to fold, because regardless of the "POT ODDS" it would be -EV to call.

Your logic is just stupid. Good luck at the tables believe me you will need it.

Yes, I want 3;5 out of the had. They are only going to put money into the hand if they are winning. Most players I play against are decent and don't throw away money on 3;5 unless they hit a good hand like at least two pair. So it is to my advantage to get hands like that out.

The A;5 is kind of a toss up. If you let other hands get in with out raising against many opponents all of a sudden little cards are dangerous. Family pots are bad if you have a good hand pre-flop. A 5 card is all of a sudden a dangerous card. If an A and a 5 hit the table you are probably in deep trouble.

If you let 8 oppenents get in against your AK, you will lose quite often. 4,5,8 is now very dangerous because it is very likely one of them has at least made a pair and you are trailing.

Thats a good example of what Im trying to say.

Ok, I dont think I got ym basic idea acroess with this post, so I can see how some people would write these comments, you are right.

Now, the basic idea I am trying to get across is that early on in a MTT, in my experiences, pre flop play is happening in the early stages more and more often. Players are using the all in for a tool now, when they flop top pair, its an immediate all-in. A lot fo weaker players call these with draws only, and Im talking about avoiding this.

[Jimbo]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats a good example of what Im trying to say.

Ok, I dont think I got ym basic idea acroess with this post, so I can see how some people would write these comments, you are right.

Now, the basic idea I am trying to get across is that early on in a MTT, in my experiences, pre flop play is happening in the early stages more and more often. Players are using the all in for a tool now, when they flop top pair, its an immediate all-in. A lot fo weaker players call these with draws only, and Im talking about avoiding this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty much bad advice you are offering but I see why you think this way because of this quote from your original post:

[ QUOTE ]
Now, about odds:

I will often fold TT - QQ preflop is someone is agresivly betting. The theory here is that I will wait until its cheap for me to enter and out play after the flop, rather than making a risk by putting up a lot of my stack pre flop when any ace hand or king hand can take me out.


[/ QUOTE ]

You are advocating weak-tight play, to each his own but this style of play won't get you to the final table very often. If your goal is to squeak into the money it will work ocassionally.

If you have the correct pot odds to call on a flush (or any other) draw you should be calling that all-in bet you mention above. How do you know the player even has a hand? You are being results oriented. For that matter why would you even call with the top fullhouse on a paired board? After all your oponnent might have quads or even worse a straight flush! Your advice is generally bad because if you are worried about being put out early in a large MTT you are playing too high for your comfort zone.

Jimbo

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I want 3;5 out of the had. They are only going to put money into the hand if they are winning. Most players I play against are decent and don't throw away money on 3;5 unless they hit a good hand like at least two pair. So it is to my advantage to get hands like that out.

The A;5 is kind of a toss up. If you let other hands get in with out raising against many opponents all of a sudden little cards are dangerous. Family pots are bad if you have a good hand pre-flop. A 5 card is all of a sudden a dangerous card. If an A and a 5 hit the table you are probably in deep trouble

[/ QUOTE ]

wow.

You really don't want 3,5 and A5 to see the flop against your AK even though you raised it?

Really, wow...

b

I believe there needs to be a different measuring stick besides EV for All-in bets where you put your whole tournament on the line.

Let's say you go broke on a bet that had a positive EV. Sure, you can console yourself with the fact that you'll will win more chips (not money) in the long run if you make that bet every time, but who's to say that had you not gone all-in you wouldn't have gone on to win the tournament?

When you go broke there is an "implied" loss, the maximum of which is the first prize of the tourny.

IMO Just because a bet has a positive EV, doesn't mean it's the right bet for a particular situation in a tournament.

"My last 2 dollars"

Diamond Jim Brady
(After being asked what was his biggest bet)

[RoundTower]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I want 3;5 out of the had. They are only going to put money into the hand if they are winning. Most players I play against are decent and don't throw away money on 3;5 unless they hit a good hand like at least two pair. So it is to my advantage to get hands like that out.

The A;5 is kind of a toss up. If you let other hands get in with out raising against many opponents all of a sudden little cards are dangerous. Family pots are bad if you have a good hand pre-flop. A 5 card is all of a sudden a dangerous card. If an A and a 5 hit the table you are probably in deep trouble.

If you let 8 oppenents get in against your AK, you will lose quite often. 4,5,8 is now very dangerous because it is very likely one of them has at least made a pair and you are trailing.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is correct; if eight players see this flop you probably shouldn't pay too much more with AK.

[MushashiAce]

Your right, its not about odds, thats why I go all in every hand, because no one has the cohanez to call me!!! muhahahaha

(From reading his post, I have to suspect that Mcot recently took a bad beat.) I will say that I agree with Mcot on that too many beginning players rely too much on what they think is the math. I did the same and it seemed to me that the only thing math was good for was telling me how unlucky I had been.

Here is what I learned about about NL Hold'em - it's about confidence. If any two cards can win, as you correctly say they can, then losses are just something you will have to get used to. In other words, you need to be able to take losses confidently so that your game will always be good.

You can do this by:

1) Not being afraid to gamble. Yes, poker is gambling. Do not be afraid to get your money in there if you feel you have the best hand. You have A-A, you are gambling because Aces get cracked all the time. You have the nut flush, but the river has yet to come, you are gambling because the board could pair. If you are afraid of gambling, NL is not for you. Their are limit tournaments, but I suspect you may find these even harder.

2) If you think some one is gambling even more than you, you absolutely have to make it expensive for him. Here's what I mean by gambling more than you. You have K-K, the flop comes 7-5-10, two to a suit. If you are worried someone is trying to get a flush, he is gambling more than you because you already have a hand and he is drawing. You're going to win 65% of the time, but if you just bet the minimum, most likely you're giving him a profitable call. Yeah, all-in might be a donk move if you have no other information, but so is giving the flush draw over 2 to 1 on his money. Raise, you have a 15% edge, which is substantially more than the casino has in most of its games. (Did you ever see Donald Trump trying to lower the betting at the craps table because he only has a 1.5% edge?)

If you have confidence in these two things, then the third area of confidence will be that of your opponents. They will have "confidence" in you. They may still think they are better (many will be right), but they will be confident that they will have very few easy spots against you.

So here comes the math, because if you do not understand the technical aspects of hold'em (i.e., the odds) you will never have the confidence it takes to win a NL Hold'em MTT. Moreover, when you thoroughly grasp the odds, you will find it much easier to read your opponents. When it comes to odds, the questions you need to ask is:

What are the hands my opponents could have that currently beat me or have a fair chance of beating me (i.e., draws)?

Your next question should be:

Given the betting (and other information-not much for on-line), has my opponent been behaving like he has any of these hands? Can I narrow it down?

Finally, you need to ask yourself, what hand(s) is my opponent putting me on? What can I do to change/reinforce his determination?

Obviously, there will be a few times in a tournament that you may want to fold the best hand. You're close to the money, big stack moves all-in. Maybe you fold here when you feel the big stack is semi-bluffing. But you're not folding here for the reasons you wrote about in your post, you're folding because now you are taking a 35-45% chance of being eliminated when you are knocking on money's door. If you were small stacks at the table, do you see why you should call? Do you see why you should call (or seriously, seriously, seriously contemplate calling) the semi-bluff in a cash game?