Raise the flop?

[aflaba]

The guy who bets out is a full time player with 24/10, 1.4 in stats.
The other guy is a LAG with something like 60/20, 1.5 in stats.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, MP calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, BB calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP calls, CO folds, Hero calls.




It feels like I should have raised the flop. At the time of play I wasn't sure. And unfortunatly I'm still not. Why should I raise the flop? It would be very nice with a really good explaination that I can print, frame and then put on my wall.

[aflaba]

My reson for not raising the flop was something along the lines of:

BB could have any good hand, at least KX, or a flush draw. I think two pair or a straight is most probable.

MP could probably have any pair any draw.



Most likly I'm drawing now, to my back-door flush, straight, two pair.
If I raise then I open myself up to a 3-bet or even worse albeit probably less likly a turn ch/r.

If I raise with the best hand and they don't push me around later, then all I've done is making them pay 1SB extra a head.

EDIT: I think that means that I lose a "little" more when behind than what I win when I'm ahead, since they are more probable to draw me out, than I am to draw out.

It feels like the disadvantages of raising are bigger than the advantages.

I'd rather just call and bet if checked to. Then if I don't improve I can see to that 1SB goes in on flop and 2SB on turn and river. I am in control.



Is my thinking flawed or insufficient? What is it that I haven't considered?

[spydog]

I just call this flop. Your hand is mediocre on this type of flop and in danger of being a 2nd best hand that will pay dearly. I just call and bet if they check to me and raise if I improve. BB's flop lead is somewhat scary, although it could just be a strong draw.

[krishanleong]

I raise this flop more often then I call. It makes the rest of the hand easier and I feel like I've got quite a bit of equity even with 3 broadway out.

Krishan

[cartman]

I think this is a very clear raise. Neither of these guys is likely to have a hand better than yours at this point. I would raise here on the value of your overpair alone. Throw in the gutshot and the backdoor flush and I this you miss a ton of equity by just calling.

Cartman

[aflaba]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise this flop more often then I call. It makes the rest of the hand easier and I feel like I've got quite a bit of equity even with 3 broadway out.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

How will the hand become easier to play with a raise?
I feel that the hand will become easier to play if I call.

[pshabi]

Okay.

You call, they lead the turn, then what?

Do you call again?

#1 - I think you have an equity edge here. Push it on the flop.

#2 - Raising it makes it easier because if you get 3-bet, you can call and fold turn UI. If they just call and check the turn to you, you can bet. If they call, I'd assume I'm good. If they check/raise the turn, you know you're behind.

[aflaba]

[ QUOTE ]
#2 - Raising it makes it easier because if you get 3-bet, you can call and fold turn UI. If they just call and check the turn to you, you can bet. If they call, I'd assume I'm good. If they check/raise the turn, you know you're behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

But I don't like folding turn on a blank when I have so many outs:
4 outs to a straight
6 outs to two pair
2 outs to a set
... some outs good some outs very tainted, but still alot of equity.

If I could fold turn UI and it would't cost me so much equity then I'd feel a raise would make the hand easier to play.

A case could be made for folding the river UI for the same cost as calling down, but then it would only be one bet to SD with OP :P

[TStoneMBD]

just call the flop, it looks like youre toasted. if the BB is on a draw and opts to check the turn, its quite plausible that MP will take the lead. if thats the case you can raise and knock the BB off a Q or make him pay a good deal for his draw.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
just call the flop, it looks like youre toasted.

[/ QUOTE ]

a bet and a call and suddenly we are toast with an overpair?

Krishan