American Fottball: When to Go for Two

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But this is still a joke. That's like saying "well, your chance of hitting a 3 pointer is 30%, your chance of hitting a 2 is 50%, so it's more +EV to shoot 2 pointers. Therefore, you should never shoot a 3 unless you're down 3 with 1 second left in the game."
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In football, there are times when it is correct to go for two points. My point is unless your team has a better than 50% sucess rate it is -EV.

Your basketball analogy does not hold water because basketball is about good shot selection. A basketball player that has a good 3-point shot may have a 40% sucess rate when they are wide open and perhaps a 20% success rate when the other team has him well covered.

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Way too much implementation of probability and EV in this thread. Realize this is not nearly the way coaches make this decision. It's game and situation-dependent, as it should be.

[pokerdirty]

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Didn't need to read past "It is the 1st quarter" and "It is the 3rd quarter" to vote no on the first 2.

3rd one is close, I gave the slight edge to yes. People might say but if you miss and they kick a field goal you're down my 8 and need 2 points, but I don't like the chances that you'd gonna hold a team that's put up 41 on you and is driving to a field goal.

I could see an argument against going for 2 based on the fact that there's 13 minutes left and you're in a shootout, so who cares about a 3 vs. 4. vs. 5 point deficit.

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You are an idiot then. The 2nd and 3rd one are the same if time is not a factor.

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Ummm....that's exactly what I said. "3rd quarter" you potentiall have half the game left. 13 minutes left, you potentially have just one meaningful posession left, so you put yourself in a position to tie with a FG. As I said, if there is one, the edge is slight.

But lack of reading comprehension is something I'd expect from a Yankee fan, so you are excused.

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You said No to the first 2, even though 2 and 3 are the same if you don't look at time. You said "Didn't need to read past (insert quarters here)", yet, you had different answers for 2 and 3. I know what I read, and you are giving contradicting statements.

[J.R.]

this suggests conversions are successful closer to 50% (2000-2002)

[Jack of Arcades]

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Um, okay, that was data for one season.
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Um, Okay......Link to support your 50% success rate assertion?

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http://www.docsports.com/two-point-conversion.html

Here's an article using historical stats for both college and the nfl. It's roughty 43% for 2-point conversions and 94% for XPTs.

[J.R.]

Give some love to Sackrowitz

[jstnrgrs]

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you rarely go for 2 outside the 4th quarter
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Agreed.
What % of coaches do you think understand this? I say maybe 10%.

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Lots of coaches don't understand when to go for two or not. A few weeks ago, it was established that if you trail by 14 late in the game, if you score a touchdown, you should go for two. When do you think the first time we will se that in the NFL will be?

In high school, there are many teams that should ALWAYS go for two, but these coaches aren't any better.

To the poster who said there is a 34% chance of success, I'd like you to site your source, because that seems very low.

[Jack of Arcades]

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A few weeks ago, it was established that if you trail by 14 late in the game, if you score a touchdown, you should go for two. When do you think the first time we will se that in the NFL will be?

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This was established decades ago.

[jstnrgrs]

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A few weeks ago, it was established that if you trail by 14 late in the game, if you score a touchdown, you should go for two. When do you think the first time we will se that in the NFL will be?

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This was established decades ago.

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I meant in this forum. My bad.

[Felix_Nietsche]

Wow.....great article. Sackrowitz is the man.

There seems to be a big variance and what the average success rate is for a 2-point conversion. Some claim almost 50% and others in the mid 30s.

[Bulldog]

It is the fourth quarter with 5:15 remaining. You are losing 34-20. You score a touchdown to make it 34-26. Do you go for two or one?