American Fottball: When to Go for Two

[pokerdirty]

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't need to read past "It is the 1st quarter" and "It is the 3rd quarter" to vote no on the first 2.

3rd one is close, I gave the slight edge to yes. People might say but if you miss and they kick a field goal you're down my 8 and need 2 points, but I don't like the chances that you'd gonna hold a team that's put up 41 on you and is driving to a field goal.

I could see an argument against going for 2 based on the fact that there's 13 minutes left and you're in a shootout, so who cares about a 3 vs. 4. vs. 5 point deficit.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are an idiot then. The 2nd and 3rd one are the same if time is not a factor.

[Felix_Nietsche]

You are an idiot then. The 2nd and 3rd one are the same if time is not a factor.
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He said No(1st Qtr), No(3rd Qtr), and it is close on the 3rd question (4th Qtr).
Did you not say something similiar?

I do think most pro coaches are IDIOTS when it comes to making this decison.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
Going for two is -EV. There is a 34% chance of success

[/ QUOTE ]

According to what?

[Felix_Nietsche]

http://luiscabral.org/iio/ch04/two_points/

You got me. 37%

[DCWildcat]

[ QUOTE ]
Going for two is -EV. There is a 34% chance of success.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is ridiculous. There are tons of variables (momentum, defensive fatigue, offensive line skill, running back power, fullback power, etc.), that it's insane to just throw a blanket 34% chance of success down here.

And that completely changes the scenario. There's not even close to enough information to make these decisions.

[JordanIB]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Didn't need to read past "It is the 1st quarter" and "It is the 3rd quarter" to vote no on the first 2.

3rd one is close, I gave the slight edge to yes. People might say but if you miss and they kick a field goal you're down my 8 and need 2 points, but I don't like the chances that you'd gonna hold a team that's put up 41 on you and is driving to a field goal.

I could see an argument against going for 2 based on the fact that there's 13 minutes left and you're in a shootout, so who cares about a 3 vs. 4. vs. 5 point deficit.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are an idiot then. The 2nd and 3rd one are the same if time is not a factor.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm....that's exactly what I said. "3rd quarter" you potentiall have half the game left. 13 minutes left, you potentially have just one meaningful posession left, so you put yourself in a position to tie with a FG. As I said, if there is one, the edge is slight.

But lack of reading comprehension is something I'd expect from a Yankee fan, so you are excused.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
http://luiscabral.org/iio/ch04/two_points/

You got me. 37%

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, okay, that was data for one season. If we go for this season and last, the chance is nearly 50%.

[Felix_Nietsche]

This is ridiculous. There are tons of variables (momentum, defensive fatigue, offensive line skill, running back power, fullback power, etc.), that it's insane to just throw a blanket 34% chance of success down here.
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OK...37% (this is for an average team)
A team that is EXCEPTIONALLY skilled at 2-point conversions might have a 44% success rate. It is still -EV.

[DCWildcat]

[ QUOTE ]
http://luiscabral.org/iio/ch04/two_points/

You got me. 37%

[/ QUOTE ]

But this is still a joke. That's like saying "well, your chance of hitting a 3 pointer is 30%, your chance of hitting a 2 is 50%, so it's more +EV to shoot 2 pointers. Therefore, you should never shoot a 3 unless you're down 3 with 1 second left in the game."

[DCWildcat]

If we assume 37% or whatever, then yes, it's -EV. But there are situations where, I would argue, it's >60%.