AK - an allin hand?

[Rah]

I've spent some time this weekend reading NL & PotLimit poker, as well as TPFAP. While Reuben/Ciaffone refers to AK as a dangerous hand, Sklansky recommens allin as a possible strategy since it's only in bad shape versus AK or KK. I guess this refers to special tournament conditions, but the question is interesting. If you're playing a site like PP, where the stacks are short and the players loose, wouldn't trying to go all in with AK pf being EV+? Of course, AA or KK will sometimes break you, but I've seen a lot of people calling allins with AQ, AJ, KQ etc. Is this a high variance but profitable move?

[gytten]

going all-in preflop with AK in a cash game is just stupid, only callers will be high pairs = you are behind. Its not like a AQ, AJ, KQ is going to call it. Anyway, at the best, you are 50/50 to win the pot. Not that good [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. In a tournament it might be an ok move if you're shortstacked and the blinds are eating away your stack, but still, AK is a drawing hand.

[schwza]

Rah,

playing on low-limit, shallow-stack party, moving in with AK is often a good idea. the thing is, it's a pretty bad idea if you're the first person to raise (and have a reasonable stack) because almost every time you'll just steal the blinds. stealing the blinds isn't bad per se, but you want to make more with AK (and of course you'll occasionally be called by KK or AA).

but if i had 25 and a player i knew to raise a lot made it 4 or 5 to go, i might push. if you add one or two cold-callers, i definitely push. i generally like to reraise AK because people raise with so much garbage (e.g., A6o) that it's good to get more money in before the flop. but if you reraise a reasonable amount, you're putting in 40% of your stack, and it's a disaster to put in 40% of your stack pre-flop and then fold when an A and K don't hit. you might as well push it in that case.

as your stack gets higher above 25, it becomes a worse and worse idea to push with AK. then you run into the problem of winning a small pot or getting called by a coin-flip (TT-QQ) or a big pair (KK-AA).

[Wayfare]

Gytten is simply wrong. There is a huge possibility that worse hands will call you -- in the right game. I choose to play AK like a drawing hand, mixing up raising and such. However, if you just push with AK for your whole stack and play it hot-and-cold, I can almost guarantee you it will be +EV at the PP 25 tables.

[Rah]

Wayfare: Yes, that's basically what I mean. When you're called, you're 50/50 against pairs, an underdog to AA/KK but a favourite against other cards and a huge favourite over dominated hands. I have *often* seen all-in calls by KQ, AQ, AJ and sometimes even Ace/rags. From what I've seen, I too believe pushing AK against a raiser is EV+ with a buyin stack at PP 25, but of course high variance.

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
I've spent some time this weekend reading NL & PotLimit poker, as well as TPFAP. While Reuben/Ciaffone refers to AK as a dangerous hand, Sklansky recommens allin as a possible strategy since it's only in bad shape versus AK or KK. I guess this refers to special tournament conditions, but the question is interesting. If you're playing a site like PP, where the stacks are short and the players loose, wouldn't trying to go all in with AK pf being EV+? Of course, AA or KK will sometimes break you, but I've seen a lot of people calling allins with AQ, AJ, KQ etc. Is this a high variance but profitable move?

[/ QUOTE ]

The difference is depth of money.

Deep money, it can be viewed as a drawing hand where you do not want to commit too much of your stack preflop. Shallow money it can be viewed as a made hand.

In a raised pot, if it is 10% or less of relevant stacks to call the raise, Ak can be treated as a drawing hand and usually call. If it was over 10% of relevant stacks to call the raise, it can be treated as a made hand and either re-raise allin or fold.

[MasterShakes]

I simply don't agree with most of what is written here. AKo is not a good all-in hand preflop in most of the NL25 games. If you're talking shorthanded, I could see where I could be wrong, but in a full ring game, I cannot possibly see how consistently getting all-in with AK is a good move. The times that I see AQ and AJ going all-in are, quite simply, rare. Nearly every time I see an all-in preflop confrontation on NL25 full ring Party, I'm seeing two big pairs - TT through AA. Once in awhile, you'll see somebody get all-in with a lower pocket pair.

HOWEVER, like I said, at the 6-Max, this might be a good idea. Also, if you have a good read on a player and know that he's loose enough to get all-in with a lesser hand, go ahead and do it.

In a NL game where profitable situations seem to always be coming up, how is it possibly advisable to get all-in when you are likely a coin flip at best? Have some discretion. Of course, do raise the hand preflop, but be willing to wait for the flop to get all-in with TPTK.

[Rah]

Well, with a high PP you're almost even money. Rarely will you be facing AA/KK (the probability is less as you have one ace and one king) but I have definitely seen dominated hands go all-in, especially if they're already involved. Actually, a dominated hand would only have to call about 15% of the time for the move to be EV+ and this is at least the percentage on NL 25.

[JFB37]

I think this is a very interesting subject, one that is being discussed in many threads. It is interesting, because there is no clear answer and people have legitimate different opinions.

Let's look at some numbers. I ran simulations for AKs against each of the pairs and every combination of Ax (both suited and non-suited). As I figure it, there are 213 different hands you can be against (counting each separately). I then figured out how many of those confrontations your AKs would win. I get 64.42%. Here are the numbers:

You have AK(s) against:
AA with 1 of your suit you win n/a
KK with 1 of your suit you win n/a
QQ with 1 of your suit you win 45.80%
JJ with 1 of your suit you win 45.80%
TT with 1 of your suit you win 46.00%
99 with 1 of your suit you win 47.50%
88 with 1 of your suit you win 47.40%
77 with 1 of your suit you win 47.50%
66 with 1 of your suit you win 47.50%
55 with 1 of your suit you win 48.00%
44 with 1 of your suit you win 48.70%
33 with 1 of your suit you win 48.80%
22 with 1 of your suit you win 49.40%
AA with 0 of your suit you win 12.10%
KK with 0 of your suit you win 34.00%
QQ with 0 of your suit you win 46.20%
JJ with 0 of your suit you win 46.30%
TT with 0 of your suit you win 45.90%
99 with 0 of your suit you win 47.60%
88 with 0 of your suit you win 47.80%
77 with 0 of your suit you win 47.80%
66 with 0 of your suit you win 47.50%
55 with 0 of your suit you win 48.30%
44 with 0 of your suit you win 48.50%
33 with 0 of your suit you win 49.20%
22 with 0 of your suit you win 49.90%
AK(s) with 0 of your suit you win 50.00%
AQ(s) with 0 of your suit you win 71.30%
AJ(s) with 0 of your suit you win 70.80%
AT(s) with 0 of your suit you win 70.70%
A9(s) with 0 of your suit you win 71.10%
A8(s) with 0 of your suit you win 71.10%
A7(s) with 0 of your suit you win 70.80%
A6(s) with 0 of your suit you win 70.80%
A5(s) with 0 of your suit you win 69.80%
A4(s) with 0 of your suit you win 70.20%
A3(s) with 0 of your suit you win 70.30%
A2(s) with 0 of your suit you win 71.10%
AK with 0 of your suit you win 52.50%
AQ with 0 of your suit you win 75.50%
AJ with 0 of your suit you win 75.20%
AT with 0 of your suit you win 75.30%
A9 with 0 of your suit you win 75.50%
A8 with 0 of your suit you win 75.30%
A7 with 0 of your suit you win 75.00%
A6 with 0 of your suit you win 75.30%
A5 with 0 of your suit you win 74.00%
A4 with 0 of your suit you win 74.60%
A3 with 0 of your suit you win 74.80%
A2 with 0 of your suit you win 75.50%
AK with 1 of your suit you win n/a
AQ with 1 of your suit you win 75.10%
AJ with 1 of your suit you win 75.10%
AT with 1 of your suit you win 74.70%
A9 with 1 of your suit you win 75.10%
A8 with 1 of your suit you win 74.80%
A7 with 1 of your suit you win 74.80%
A6 with 1 of your suit you win 74.70%
A5 with 1 of your suit you win 73.60%
A4 with 1 of your suit you win 74.20%
A3 with 1 of your suit you win 74.50%
A2 with 1 of your suit you win 74.90%


How are these data (remember they come from sims so are only approximate) useful?

1. They should not be read to mean that pushing in with AK(s) is always a good play. As has already been mentioned, situation is important.

2. In cash games, if noone has acted before you, I think this is probably not a good move. You probably will not be called and when you are, you will very likely be up against another AK, AA or KK. Unless the game you are in has a high blind structure, this is probably a mistake.

3. In cash games, if you are in late position, and you have several limpers in front, pushing it all in may get everyone to fold and you can pick up what is in the pot. I would not do this, however, in my first few minutes at the table. I would want to know if the people in early position are the type who limp with big hands hoping for a late raise, so that they can re-raise.

3. How about calling a big pre-flop raise in a cash game? Probably not a good idea against a very tight opponent. Probably the best time would be when it looks like a steal raise from late position and, say, you are in the blinds and can re-raise.

4. What about tournaments? Around bubble time, it may be a good strategy to push if you believe that the others are unwilling to gamble with all but the very best hands and the blinds and antes make the pot large. I am coming to the conclusion, however, that in most situations calling a desperation all in with AKs is a bad idea. If your opponent has an A, you are a healthy favorite, but you could well be up against a low pair. Then you are a slight dog. It depends on how you play your tournaments. Those in the "I'm only here for first place" camp may want to take this proposition. I, however, am coming to the opposite view. The way through a tournament is not to win a series of coin flips. It is to get your money in when you have the best of it, whenever possible and avoid unnecessary confrontations. Thus, in general, I believe that not calling an all-in with AKs is good tournament strategy.

As noted at the outset, others may disagree.

Jack

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
If your opponent has an A, you are a healthy favorite, but you could well be up against a low pair. Then you are a slight dog.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the pot odds no doubt more than compensating.



[/ QUOTE ]The way through a tournament is not to win a series of coin flips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting even money as an even money shot is a conflip and close gamble. Getting 2-1 pot odds as an even money shot is not a coinflip and is a good, not close, gamble. You do have the best of it. So saying it is AK against a lower pair is not enough.