i bet you should i shouldnt bet

[TStoneMBD]

aggro 4handed 15/30 game

unknown button raises, I 3bet A8o from the SB, he calls.

flop is 5c2cQx

i bet he calls

turn is Qx

i bet he calls

river is a 9

[Spicymoose]

I hate this situation, so I will be looking foward to the replies. I think my standard, which may not be very good, would be to check fold the river [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img], but sometimes I feel gutsy and check call. I don't think worse hands are calling you on the river, and I also think that if you check, a lot of his worse hands will bet. But, if you check, you have to be good 1 in 8 when he bets. You may be good 1 in 8, but I am unsure.

I don't see how betting can possibly be correct though.

I have no idea what the title means. Is there some reason why this isn't an easy check-call? Betting here is terrible.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there some reason why this isn't an easy check-call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I find it hard to figure out a hand that he calls the turn with that we are beating. Flush draw doesn't happen all that much HU, plus he might have raised the flop.

I'm not saying that it isn't right, I just don't find it as easy as you do.

[TStoneMBD]

betting isnt terrible

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
betting isnt terrible

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain reasons for betting? I honestly don't see them.

Maybe he will call you with a weaker ace, but if that is the basis, it is a pretty weak argument.

[Nikla]

I like betting.

[admiralfluff]

If he's a thinking tricky and aggressive player I think you should mix up your play in this situation such that:

c/c >>>> b/f >> b/c.

If he's blindly aggressive, I think you should almost always c/c.

If you do decide to bet some of these rivers against him, you will have to call a raise sometimes.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
I like betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess there is something big to be learned here then. I don't see how this bet can be for value, as some random A high would have to of called us down, and I see that is pretty improbable compared to other hodings. I guess this must be to force out the best hand? I can't see him folding a pair, and I think if he had a higher ace, he would have capped preflop. Also, checking has the added benefit of inducing from hands that are worse.

Please explain what I am missing here.

[TStoneMBD]

you bet because weaker aces will call when they would check down. he probably would have capped AJ+ preflop so im only trailing to A9/T. a good player should value bet AJ+ on this board.

if he has a pair hes betting when i check. there really shouldnt be any worse hands that get to this river and if they get there they should be bluffraising. if hes bad he could be there with a worse hand but most arent in this this game.

im leaning towards checkcall because i think a bet is close but because hes an unknown and this game is very aggressive i fear i might get bluffraised a portion of the time.