A6s in SB NL100 6-Max: How was this?

[TheWorstPlayer]

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Let's just say if I were villian and you called my flop bet, I'd put you on a flush draw 90% and OESD 10%.

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I'm not sure if this means you are advocating a fold or not. But to people who are advocating a fold. Let's say the flush hits on the turn. Let's say OP bets $7 into the now $22 pot. Are you folding getting better than 3:1? If you call, are you folding for $10 on the river? I'm pretty much never folding to either of those bets here. Which means he has implied odds to call on the flop.

[Reef]

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Let's just say if I were villian and you called my flop bet, I'd put you on a flush draw 90% and OESD 10%.

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I'm not sure if this means you are advocating a fold or not. But to people who are advocating a fold. Let's say the flush hits on the turn. Let's say OP bets $7 into the now $22 pot. Are you folding getting better than 3:1? If you call, are you folding for $10 on the river? I'm pretty much never folding to either of those bets here. Which means he has implied odds to call on the flop.

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If I put hero on a flush draw, then yes I'll probably fold to the obviously milky bet. Especially if hero's done that before.

[TheWorstPlayer]

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Let's just say if I were villian and you called my flop bet, I'd put you on a flush draw 90% and OESD 10%.

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I'm not sure if this means you are advocating a fold or not. But to people who are advocating a fold. Let's say the flush hits on the turn. Let's say OP bets $7 into the now $22 pot. Are you folding getting better than 3:1? If you call, are you folding for $10 on the river? I'm pretty much never folding to either of those bets here. Which means he has implied odds to call on the flop.

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If I put hero on a flush draw, then yes I'll probably fold to the obviously milky bet. Especially if hero's done that before.

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Are you 'putting hero on the flush' with greater than 75% certainty? And how often do you really see people play flushes? It's not like they happen every hand. And most people check/raise flushes when they hit. And obviously you have to mix it up. But I can't imagine the combination of a)not being able to make up $10 if you hit on the turn with two streets of betting left and b)not having enough steal equity to make up for any lack of pot equity even out of position. Are you really saying that this guy will lay down to any bet when the flush hits, but not fold to any bet when it doesn't, so that he is playing perfectly against you? I just find that very rare. I'm pretty sure this is a +EV call.

[NickPoker]

I would check raise here. There is a decent chance this is a position bluff/semibluff or a weak pair, so he may fold. If he calls he probably will call a reasonable bet if you hit. I think the check raise disguises your draw a bit too. Who knows, maybe he is on a flush draw too, in that case you get paid off big. Raise it to $15 to $20 to go.

[Maulik]

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I would check raise here. There is a decent chance this is a position bluff/semibluff or a weak pair, so he may fold. If he calls he probably will call a reasonable bet if you hit. I think the check raise disguises your draw a bit too. Who knows, maybe he is on a flush draw too, in that case you get paid off big. Raise it to $15 to $20 to go.

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i think it wouldn't do too great of a job disguising your hand.

[NickPoker]

Maybe not, but it is disguised better than a call IMO.

[BobboFitos]

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Let's just say if I were villian and you called my flop bet, I'd put you on a flush draw 90% and OESD 10%.

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I'm not sure if this means you are advocating a fold or not. But to people who are advocating a fold. Let's say the flush hits on the turn. Let's say OP bets $7 into the now $22 pot. Are you folding getting better than 3:1? If you call, are you folding for $10 on the river? I'm pretty much never folding to either of those bets here. Which means he has implied odds to call on the flop.

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i play different (read: better) then villain in the hand, so i probably wouldn't pay off as much.

but here's the real crux of it,twp.

if you dont have implied odds (because, despite what people think, you dont have pot odds, you're paying 5 from pot of 4, so less then 2:1 on the NEXT card on a 4:1 shot) you cant play the hand.
I dont think you have implied odds because:
a. A heart is not hidden
b. (more importantly) his bet doesn't mean much, he bet last to act, its not like he has a big hand here

so what does that mean?
if you miss, you may be able to fire away on the turn and bluff it because you dont think villain has anything. but you're probably better off doing it on the flop, where you have higher pot equity.
so calling with the intention of either making a hand or bluffing the turn isn't grand.
also, the fact it's not well hidden means if he DOES have a hand, it's less likely he'll pay you off if he can put you on the correct hand.

this also means yes, raising is better, because you have nice fold equity and when called still have decent pot equity. It puts stacks in a little bit of a problem, (which can present a turn problem) but therefore the argument for c/r is better then c/c (a large bet)

if villain bet smaller, say 3 dollars, yes, I would call.

[BobboFitos]

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Are you 'putting hero on the flush' with greater than 75% certainty?

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2 things.

1. if villain has a big hand he often will have a redraw here, so your small bet is not protecting your hand (even though it's the nuts)
2. in villain's shoes, he doesn't have to have the best hand 75% of the time, he needs to have the best hand on the turn AND river. so if you were to bet 7 now and the other half on the river, (which villain should think he will once he calls the turn) he needs to be good more often (66% +)

[TheWorstPlayer]

Well, your calculation may be better than mine but it's still not perfect. Since sometimes you will bet $7 on the turn and then check the river through and he will win. So he needs to take that into account. Also, sometimes he will raise the turn bet, so we need to take that into account. I don't know. I think it is obviously a somewhat complex problem but I just think it's weak to fold here when we have a decent shot at having 12 outs, we might even have the best hand now, and there are plenty of times that we hit on the turn and end up doubling up. And we're usually c/f the turn, so we don't really have any reverse implied odds. And I wouldn't really bet $7 on the turn because you're right that he may have a set so I would probably bet about 2/3 pot and hope he pushes, but if not at least he would be getting incorrect odds to draw.

The correct line is certainly opponent dependent, but there are very few opponents at these stakes who play well enough postflop to make this a fold for me.

[ZimbuTheMonkey]

Thanks for the great posts guys. A lot of you are debating the proper play, but it's helpful for me to get some insight from better players than I regardless.