Time to gamble?

gcDanno · #1 06-01-2005, 02:56 PM

Stars $30 rebuy satellite for WSOP. 2 thru 13 get $650, 14th $40. 16th player busts just as this hand is dealt. I am major short stack. Next stack at other table is 11k. Reads unimportant. Is this it, or should I wait and hope for a miracle hand? I've been a major shorty since shortly after the rebuy period ended. At this point, I'd be happy to get the $650 and call it a night.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (8 handed) 200 ANTE.converter

CO (t28754)
Button (t66292)
SB (t25200)
BB (t21020)
UTG (t118393)
UTG+1 (t61576)
MP1 (t59286)
Hero (t4150)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t4000, Hero ????

dmk · #2 06-01-2005, 03:08 PM

yes, gl

transmitt · #3 06-01-2005, 03:10 PM

maybe as good as its going to get, don't like it, but w/ 1.25 BB's got to (hopefully) flip the coin.

dmk · #4 06-01-2005, 03:20 PM

Its not even that much, only 1BB. There's no sense in waiting for the BB to get all-in. Its 4 hands and you'll lose an extra 1200 just getting to that point on antes. If you want to sneak into the $, this is your best opportunity, unfortuantely.

durron597 · #5 06-01-2005, 03:29 PM

Clear fold IMO. The reason is that the BB is definitely coming along in addition to MP2, and 66 is a horrible hand multiway, since one of them will likely pair.

dmk · #6 06-01-2005, 03:30 PM

whats your plan then? fold until you get to the BB w/ .5BBs? so you can possibly double up w/ a random hand to 1BB (maybe triple to 1.5BB), pay the SB.....

durron597 · #7 06-01-2005, 03:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
whats your plan then? fold until you get to the BB w/ .5BBs? so you can possibly double up w/ a random hand to 1BB (maybe triple to 1.5BB), pay the SB.....

[/ QUOTE ]

I would rather go allin with K7o in earlier position and hope to go HU with the BB.

dmk · #8 06-01-2005, 03:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
whats your plan then? fold until you get to the BB w/ .5BBs? so you can possibly double up w/ a random hand to 1BB (maybe triple to 1.5BB), pay the SB.....

[/ QUOTE ]

I would rather go allin with K7o in earlier position and hope to go HU with the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

your all-in is less than a call. you think you won't get 20 calls behind you? at least here you have a pair and you already had 2 folds in front of you.

durron597 · #9 06-01-2005, 03:45 PM

Look at how quickly the GoCee numbers for 66 drop off as compared to QJs. Sure it's better against one opponent but we can ignore that as the BB will play.

Opp: 66: QJs:
1 63.3 60.3
2 43.2 44.1
3 31.5 35.6
4 24.5 30.1
5 20.1 26.1
6 17.3 23.0
7 15.4 20.7
8 14.0 18.7
9 13.1 17.1

gcDanno · #10 06-01-2005, 03:56 PM

I agreed that it was time to play the hand. I figured any hand I play, I'm probably going to be playing multi-handed anyway so I decided to call (after the ante, i had less than the 4k blinds). Also, what are the odds that on this kind of bubble, that people are going to play anything until I'm gone anyway? Boy was I wrong!

The results of the hand absolutely do not change my mind that I should have played this hand or not, and this is not a bad beat story! I was way behind when I put my money in.

I have posted the entire game log, because you just don't see this type of hand come along that often. As it turns out, if I fold, I win the $650 this hand! Ain't Poker fun!

PokerStars Game #1809546107: Tournament #8377541, Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (2000/4000) - 2005/06/01 - 03:11:54 (ET)
Table '8377541 34' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: bib1 (28754 in chips)
Seat 2: Joe_Russo (66292 in chips)
Seat 3: tjassaa (25200 in chips)
Seat 4: ripdog71 (21020 in chips)
Seat 5: LAJG (118393 in chips)
Seat 7: Badass2635 (61576 in chips)
Seat 8: nupsee (59286 in chips)
Seat 9: gcDanno (4150 in chips)
bib1: posts the ante 200
Joe_Russo: posts the ante 200
tjassaa: posts the ante 200
ripdog71: posts the ante 200
LAJG: posts the ante 200
Badass2635: posts the ante 200
nupsee: posts the ante 200
gcDanno: posts the ante 200
tjassaa: posts small blind 2000
ripdog71: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to gcDanno [6s 6c]
LAJG: folds
Badass2635: folds
nupsee: calls 4000
gcDanno: calls 3950 and is all-in
bib1: raises 24554 to 28554 and is all-in
Joe_Russo: raises 37538 to 66092 and is all-in
tjassaa: folds
ripdog71: folds
nupsee: calls 55086 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [6h Ts 2d]
*** TURN *** [6h Ts 2d] [Th]
*** RIVER *** [6h Ts 2d Th] [Qc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
nupsee: shows [Ad Ac] (two pair, Aces and Tens)
Joe_Russo: shows [Qd Qs] (a full house, Queens full of Tens)
Joe_Russo collected 61064 from side pot-2
bib1: shows [9s 9c] (two pair, Tens and Nines)
Joe_Russo collected 73862 from side pot-1
gcDanno: shows [6s 6c] (a full house, Sixes full of Tens)
Joe_Russo collected 23350 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 158276 Main pot 23350. Side pot-1 73862. Side pot-2 61064. | Rake 0
Board [6h Ts 2d Th Qc]
Seat 1: bib1 showed [9s 9c] and lost with two pair, Tens and Nines
Seat 2: Joe_Russo (button) showed [Qd Qs] and won (158276) with a full house, Queens full of Tens
Seat 3: tjassaa (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: ripdog71 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: LAJG folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Badass2635 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: nupsee showed [Ad Ac] and lost with two pair, Aces and Tens
Seat 9: gcDanno showed [6s 6c] and lost with a full house, Sixes full of Tens