an "expert's" comments on online poker

[MicroBob]

my dad doesn't even know how to play poker and only took a couple of statistics course in college and even HE can figure this stuff out (as far as i can tell)
his comments on the article (having read it in my blog):



[ QUOTE ]
While I didn't totally understand his rationale it
is probable that his analysis applies to the whole population of internet
poker players and fails to take into account that some are much better
than the population. There was a similar analysis of investors in the
stock market which concluded that it was impossible to beat the market.
But obviously there are many investors who have beaten the market over
a significant number of years. I had several credits of statistics in
college and grad school and one of the frequent problems that was
encountered was that the population of whatever is not normally
distributed which is a requirement to apply probability analysis.
Thus if there are a small percentage of outliers in a given
population--such as excellent poker players or investors--then it
becomes difficult if not impossible to apply probability theory.


[/ QUOTE ]


I think his observation that similar arguments have been made about the stock-market not being beatable is kind of interesting.

[uw_madtown]

People win money at online poker?

[augie00]

Someone get this goober's e-mail address so I can taunt him.

[young nut]

It just makes me laugh when so called "experts" completely disregard all statistics and mathematics in general. It is articles like these that make me wish for mandatory credential postings. As in, if you call yourself an expert, justify why you are an expert. If only all journalists were forced to do this [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[ZenMusician]

Haaaaaaahahahahahahahaaaaaaaa!!!!

Now I know who's been posting all the bad beat stories around here!

This should have been XP'd in Probability. I wonder what he would
say about the $4 rake in the 4-8 game at the 'Woods...I guess I am
a statistical anomally.

nh / np

-ZEN

[Uppercut]

"You are absolutely, positively, guaranteed to lose your money".

I think that the good Mr. Katz does not understand the meaning of the words "absolutely, positively, guaranteed".

[Losing all]

This dude's a cartoon..

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Gambling Facts and Fictions: The Anti-Gambling Handbook to get yourself to stop gambling, quit gambling or never start gambling

Copyright © 2004

by Stephen Katz

ISBN: 1418472409

Library of Congress: 2004094023

[/ QUOTE ]

When someone is putting out misinformation, the first question one should ask (when trying to figure out why this misinformation is being put forth) is, "is this person making money off of this misinformation?"

Take an extreme viewpoint that discords with reality, if challenged be steadfast in your "beliefs," write a book about it, market it, sell as many copies as you can, make $$$. He's just using a time-tested formula for making a buck (whether he admits that to himself or not).

[ianlippert]

Who is this guy? Does he have a Tv show or something? Does he have any pull in the mainstream media?

[UATrewqaz]

The author's only expertise is that in the field of utter ignornace.

Edit: It appears this article is agenda, not fact driven. This guy wants to see online gambling fail as an industry, most likely B&M gambling as well. His goal is to make as many people as possible quit gambling, which is good advice for most people, thus he most likely feels he can take a few liberties with the truth if it will accomplish his "for the greater good" goal.

And the sad thing is he has most likely delluded himself into 100% believing what he wrote (and I doubt he even plays poker).