AA on 3-flush broadway flop

[sebastian_d]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises...</font>

I think this is a fold here. The only hand I'm ahead of is KK or a highly unlikely AQ: And if either of those hands has a spade in them, they've got a redraw to beat me. I'm already drawing to a split vs. AKo (with three outs for it), and drawing dead to AsKs. I'm also in bad shape vs. TT, JJ, QQ. I hate to toss AA, but I think this is a situation it's gotta go. Thoughts?

[KDawgCometh]

I don't see a reason to continue with this. If he has KK, oh well, he overplayed it and got lucky here, outside of that, you really are drawing thin

[JoshuaD]

What a terrible flop. Fold.

[Rex Ruthless]

I'd be leaning towards your villian have KK with one as the [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I'd probably check/call it down unless the 4th [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or str8 came to make me fold.

[jba]

I think you're in better shape than you think, and I'm calling down here getting 8.5:2.5.

I can't think of a capping hand that he wouldn't raise on this flop -- can you?

against tight capper:
Board: Ts Js Qs
Hand 1: 30.7323 % [ 00.26 00.05 ] { AdAc }
Hand 2: 69.2677 % [ 00.64 00.05 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AQs, AKo }

a little looser:
Board: Ts Js Qs
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 35.4411 % [ 00.30 00.05 ] { AdAc }
Hand 2: 64.5589 % [ 00.59 00.05 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }


I think this is the worst case scenario: all the set hands are there but no AQ:

Board: Ts Js Qs
Hand 1: 27.6789 % [ 00.23 00.05 ] { AdAc }
Hand 2: 72.3211 % [ 00.68 00.05 ] { AA-TT, AKs, AKo }

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see a reason to continue with this. If he has KK, oh well, he overplayed it and got lucky here, outside of that, you really are drawing thin

[/ QUOTE ]

how is villain overplaying KK?