Bet this River?

Ortho · #1 06-23-2005, 10:18 AM

SB is laggish--36/12/2. He would bet any variety of T here. MP2 just sat down.

On the river, I felt one of them had a T, and just decided that a lot of the Ts they could have were beating me. I would've found this bet easy against one player.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP2 calls.

River: (8 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 8 BB

AmarilloJim1 · #2 06-23-2005, 10:25 AM

I would bet this river...I doubt either of these players have a strong hand...they've shown no strength so far..

I also doubt that either of these players is trying to check-raise.

This would be a good value bet.

jrz1972 · #3 06-23-2005, 10:25 AM

Value bet this every time.

deception5 · #4 06-23-2005, 10:29 AM

I bet here. You will get called here by any piece of the board. Do you think you will get check/raised often? If not I have to imagine you are ahead here often enough that a bet is profitable.

I would also raise this preflop. QTs is a strong hand against a limper in MP2. You'll buy the button most likely (of course the button folded here but that's being results oriented) and may even get it heads up against a worse hand with 1.5 SB of dead money in the pot.

einbert · #5 06-23-2005, 10:49 AM

You should bet this river for value. They are calling with a wide range of worse hands.

Ortho · #6 06-23-2005, 10:52 AM

I'm glad I posted today. Both hands were something I do habitually that were leaks. Thanks everyone.

imported_The Vibesman · #7 06-23-2005, 11:02 AM

These guys could have overcards, straight draw, J-10, there are a ton of hands you beat and really, it's hard to put them on one you don't except K-10, or maybe A-10 (which I would have expected a raise from pre-flop. Bet this river.

jrz1972 · #8 06-23-2005, 11:03 AM

Failure to make these sorts of value bets is a HUGE leak, because the opportunity to make this mistake comes up all the time. This board isn't scary at all; a good player would go ahead and bet the river with a much thinner EV than you have here.

Basically, your play on this river (just this one hand) probably cost you 1 or 2 BB. That's between 25% and 50% of your overall 100 hand winrate (for a typical good player). That's big.

Breaking the habit of checking behind on the river just because you *could* be behind will definitely improve your winrate.

nomadtla · #9 06-23-2005, 11:28 AM

value bet it every day and twice on Sundays

MrWookie47 · #10 06-23-2005, 11:41 AM

I knew someone was killing kittens even before I read this post. Virtually every time someone posts something with a title to the effect of "Bet this river?" the answer is yes.

Bet the river next time, and make us proud.