Hand from Super Thursday final table

freemont · #1 05-20-2005, 12:59 PM

This was one of those hands where I had to go into the deep tank and though I think I was right in how I played it, but I'm curious what other MTT players think is the right line?

Here's the background. Sorry for no easy hand converter stuff and the approximations on the chip counts, but I don't have the info right in front of me on my work computer.

Players: 6
Blinds: 5K-10K
Total Chips in play 705,000
Button~ 117,000
BB~ 48,000 after posting
SB~ Me 180,000 after posting (I was the big stack at the table.)

The button had previously been pretty active in her steal attempts from the CO and button. Three times I had come over the top and she had mucked, the last time being on the previous hand where she tried to steal from the SB and I pushed with AT from the BB she mucked. I think she was fairly frustrated by me coming over the top all the time and wanted to take that play away this time. So when folded to her she open pushed all-in. I'm in the SB with 99, what's my action???

schwza · #2 05-20-2005, 01:03 PM

this would be a call absent the history; i think it's a pretty easy call given your read. lose a flip?

SossMan · #3 05-20-2005, 01:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
this would be a call absent the history; i think it's a pretty easy call given your read. lose a flip?

[/ QUOTE ]

you know, more and more, I go to respond to someone only to see that you have taken the words from my mouth...err..keyboard.

Lloyd · #4 05-20-2005, 01:23 PM

Tough one. I'd have to believe that she doesn't have a big hand. Otherwise, she'd make a normal raise and hope that you come over the top. Put her on a range - maybe AJ-A2, KQ-KT, QJ-QT, TT-22. Against that range you're a 2 to 1 favorite which clearly makes it +CEV. The question is whether it's +$EV.

If you call and win, you'll have T312,000 (44% of the chips in play) with 5 players left and $57,632 of prize money at stake. If you call and lose, you have T68,000 (10% of the chips in play) with 6 players left and $61,862 of prize money at stake. I'm ignoring the possibility of a tie to simplify things. If you fold, you have T180,000 (26% of the chips in play) with 6 players left and $61,862 of prize money at stake.

If you fold: $61,862 * 26% = $16,084

If you call and win: $25,358
If you call and lose: $6,186
Value of calling: ($25,358 * 64%) + ($6,186 * 36%) = $18,456

So, it's +$EV. You call and cross your fingers.

Also, if you add back in the big hands you're still a 60/40 favorite against the range. The value of calling would be $17,689 (still more than the value of folding). So it's still +$EV.

schwza · #5 05-20-2005, 01:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this would be a call absent the history; i think it's a pretty easy call given your read. lose a flip?

[/ QUOTE ]

you know, more and more, I go to respond to someone only to see that you have taken the words from my mouth...err..keyboard.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

SossMan · #6 05-20-2005, 01:39 PM

If he calls and loses, he still has 73k left (he was the big stack). This makes the call even more +$chipEverythingEV

This is a tough call, but one that great players and poor players will both make (the great players because they realize the top heavyness of the payout structure, and the poor players becuase 99 is pretty). It's the middle-level skill players that will fold here because they have 'little tiny balls'.

zambonidrivr · #7 05-20-2005, 01:44 PM

i have monster balls.

anyone seen the guy with the SN HarrySnatch. I love that one.

Lloyd · #8 05-20-2005, 01:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If he calls and loses, he still has 73k left (he was the big stack). This makes the call even more +$chipEverythingEV

This is a tough call, but one that great players and poor players will both make (the great players because they realize the top heavyness of the payout structure, and the poor players becuase 99 is pretty). It's the middle-level skill players that will fold here because they have 'little tiny balls'.

[/ QUOTE ]
Duh. I can't believe I overlooked that. But you're right. It makes it even more +EVeverything. And when I said it's a tough decision, it's exactly for the reasons you stated. It's emotionally difficult because we're in the drivers seat and could easily fold and maintain our chip lead. But we have to set aside emotions and make the decision that is (mathematically) correct given all of our assumptions.

SossMan · #9 05-20-2005, 02:28 PM

what's the smallest pair you are calling with there? I'm probably folding 66. I haven't done any math on it, but that's what my intuition says. It's likely +EV to call with almost any pair.

schwza · #10 05-20-2005, 02:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
what's the smallest pair you are calling with there? I'm probably folding 66. I haven't done any math on it, but that's what my intuition says. It's likely +EV to call with almost any pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

i was thinking about this on the walk back from lunch. i call with 88 for sure.

you have to believe that villain will be doing this more often with 22 than AA (AA would want to give hero a chance to play back), so 77 is probably a call too. the problem with adding too many pairs is that you still have the BB left to act.