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AK vs 2 All-ins
I can't decide what I should have done here:
Late in $100+9 NLHE tourney, 18 left out of 160 or so. Everyone is in the money, but bottom 9 get the buy-in back plus some nuisance compensation. I'm in 3rd at my table, around 6th or 7th overall with 27K. The top stacks at my table are around 40K and the top stack overall is about 50K. Structure is 1k/2k blinds and 100 ante, and I'm the BB. Once everyone was in the money the character of the table changed from tight/aggressive to pretty much "all-in or fold". Action goes Fold, Fold, all-in for 13K, call (with 17K before, 4K after call), all Fold to me with AKo with 11K to call and 4 more at risk. I take a time out and figure that if Im up against 2 lower pair I'm about a 3/1 dog (I have to win 2 coin flips), if its a lower pair plus either my A or K (but not both) is duplicated by the other one its about 2/1 against me (3/4 vs duplicator and a coin flip vs the pair), if there is another AK we kill outs for each other and split the ones we do win, which should be ugly, vs AA and a lower pair Im done for and vs KK and a lower pair Im maybe 4/1 dog (7/3 vs the KK, reduced by the set possibilities for the lower pair. Offsetting this is the possiblity of slightly more than doubling up and moving into first place, knocking out 2 of the 18 and getting closer to real money, and the fact that I have 10k left (although close to bottom stack) if I lose. Running out of time I..... What do you do? My decision, actual odds vs the above estimates, and results later. Thanks. |
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