does everyone see a showdown here?

#1 12-03-2005, 04:19 PM

Opponent is a 38/5.5/2 after 55 hands ...

Is everyone paying for a showdown here? Comments on all streets appreciated. I think the raise UTG was bad ... normally I limp with 88 UTG if the table is loose enough ... i was just feelin spunky.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 4 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, SB folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

River: (10.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

milesdyson · #2 12-03-2005, 04:28 PM

the raise preflop is fine.

and yeah i see a showdown here, but i have to say i would never expect to win this pot.

honestly, i think the turn call is slightly -EV and the river call is a bit more -EV. but i still make them every time. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

#3 12-03-2005, 04:35 PM

Nope. I'm folding to the Button 3 bet AND the BB call. Can't see where we are favored enough to check call both expensive streets with a 2-3 outer.

milesdyson · #4 12-03-2005, 04:57 PM

folding the flop getting 16:1 with an overpair and a backdoor straight draw makes me rofal. button will pull this [censored] with a 5, 55, 77, two clubs, A6, etc. more than often enough to call this. plus, if he somehow has two pair on this board, we have outs to beat it.

DCWildcat · #5 12-03-2005, 05:00 PM

I'm seeing a showdown. The pot is huge on the flop, and you have enough outs to see a turn, even when they're a little dirty.

Pot's big, opponent is very aggressive, other opponent folded and board is weak by the time the action gets to you on the turn. I'm calling down by this point.

checkmate36 · #6 12-03-2005, 05:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
folding the flop getting 16:1 with an overpair and a backdoor straight draw makes me rofal. button will pull this [censored] with a 5, 55, 77, two clubs, A6, etc. more than often enough to call this. plus, if he somehow has two pair on this board, we have outs to beat it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

You said you would call on the turn and river not expecting to win (slightly -EV) and Im wondering if thats because the pot is a bit larger and our hand has slim chance to be best or improve?

milesdyson · #7 12-03-2005, 05:06 PM

if a decision's -EV, you just shouldn't do it. in my mind i'm trying to figure in improving, implied odds, the chance that we're behind here, etc. in coming up with these estimations on EV.

i really don't believe the turn/river calls are good here, but i swear i would make them. i feel like the turn is really slight either way. one thing to think about for the turn call is how often he will give us a free showdown with a better/worse hand.

#8 12-03-2005, 05:37 PM

I say ditch on the turn, as you're not getting odds for the gutshot especially because the 5c isn't so nice and you may be drawing dead to the flush already. At best you probably have 6 outs, which have to be discounted for the 8c and 5c. I say you're clearly beat and drawing a little too slim, so fold and move on.

#9 12-03-2005, 06:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
folding the flop getting 16:1 with an overpair and a backdoor straight draw makes me rofal. button will pull this [censored] with a 5, 55, 77, two clubs, A6, etc. more than often enough to call this. plus, if he somehow has two pair on this board, we have outs to beat it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not really sure what "rofal" is, but I agree that calling the 16:1 is correct (somehow I thought it was 2 back to me, not only 1). However, I was answering the OP's question of going to showdown. Given the Button's stats, do you really check call twice without serious (8 or non-club 7) help on the turn? There is no way with the info provided that it is anything other than a check/fold on the turn. Anything else is -EV over the long haul. Check fold the river with the Jh is the only logical choice.

Remember the Button cold called 2 pf and 3 bet the flop - JJ-99 anyone?