When will the poker fad / bubble end?

[LargeCents]

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I hear a lot about burst bubbles and tighter/smarter players on Party and the like, but when I started playing online during the spring of last year Party averaged about 30K players during its peak hours. It's now double that, so the pond is still stocked.

When it comes to "bubble" theories, I don't think the wisdom of long-time pro's or personal anecdotes from 2+2ers who say that the SNG's and micro cash games are getting tougher to beat is really the best information. I think the only way to measure the thinness of the bubble skin is to look at the # of players on Party and the other big sites (Party may not always be the biggest, but it still has the biggest marketing budget, so unless it makes a big business mistake it will remain the McDonald's of online sites) If these big sites are still at 60K and growing, than the tables are good to go. If they retreat back to their late '03/early '04 levels, then maybe the fish have all been scared off. Maybe in a year or two this will happen, but who knows, maybe not.

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I love the McDonald's analogy. I actually think there is a perfect similarity. Fast food is a quick fix/hit that "everyone" knows is bad for you. Poker is about the same. I think the fish, deep down, know that poker is as "unhealthy" as any gambling habit, entertainment value or not. I say it's an even money bet which bubble will burst first, fast food or poker. I know neither will burst within my lifetime, so the point is kinda moot for me.

The online/B&M cardrooms/casinos will be virtually as powerful as McDonald's and the other fast food chains with time. If business lags, there's enough money to get some good brains thinking some progressive ideas to bring the customers back. There is too much money involved, now. Poker isn't going away.

[TomBrooks]

I think it will peak in 2007 or 2008, then slowly decline.

[Mike Cuneo]

yesterday

[Walter Pullis]

The bubble will burst at the first sign of overt crookedness, or huge "winner-take-all" TV tourneys where
we find out the final table just chopped it up.

[1p0kerb0y]

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I doubt you are aware of how popular chess tournaments are in the U.S. Last year's World Open in Philadelphia drew 1,208 players. It's the biggest tournament of the year and has been regularly drawing 1,000+ players for a lot longer than poker has.

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I noticed some chess tournaments have payouts and some do not. Do these work the same way as a poker tournament, where the entrants "buy-in" to the event?

[LargeCents]

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I doubt you are aware of how popular chess tournaments are in the U.S. Last year's World Open in Philadelphia drew 1,208 players. It's the biggest tournament of the year and has been regularly drawing 1,000+ players for a lot longer than poker has.

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I noticed some chess tournaments have payouts and some do not. Do these work the same way as a poker tournament, where the entrants "buy-in" to the event?

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"basically", yes.

For U.S. tournaments, you must pay membership dues to gain tournament entry, which is maybe 50 bucks a year for adults. These dues subsize the tournaments. You get a monthly magazine, which is terrible, compared to free online chess news sites. So, you are basically paying for the right to play in USCF tournaments.

The entry fees can range from $20 for small tourneys, where the payouts are only like $100 for first place, to $200 for the U.S. Open, where the payout is closer to $10k for first place. I am ballparking, I haven't been involved in tournaments in almost a decade now. Sometimes there is "some" sponser kick in, for the bigger tournaments, but it's still at least 70-80% subsidized by the players.

So, yes, tournament chess is basically "gambling", in the same way as a tournamnet poker, IMO. Poker has a MUCH higher variance though. Heads-up, a top professional poker player is 2-1 at BEST against a mediocre amateur. In chess, a top professional chess player is 1k-1, if not 10k-1 against a mediocre amateur.

[autobet]

That could only mean chess has taken the world by storm.

[deepdowntruth]

Sometime after Beanie Babies.

Oh.