thin value bet

[toby]

Question here is for the river

UTG is 80/9 after 100 hands. He is generally passive but more noticeably more aggressive on the river.

Converter is acting up so sry i'll go by hand.

Party Poker (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG limps, folds to me, I raise to isolate. BB and SB fold. UTG calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Standard continuation bet - I probably have the best hand unless he's got a PP.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls

I'm thinking 1) maybe MHIG 2) flush draw (10-high) might be good if behind now 3) gutshot straight draw also

So if I'm good, great, if not, plenty of outs.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero ...
Pot is $22 now after $1 was raked.

Well I hit the flush, but it's only 4th nut..A, K, Q still beat me. Given his aggression on the river, he will 100% checkraise any hand that beats me, might checkraise a worse hand like 2pr or 9-high flush, but will fold a poor hand.

I'd like to value bet because on the turn I felt like a flush might win it for me. However a checkraise would very unpleasant and I have to call down in a small pot.

What's your line, and why?

PREFLOP: Standard
FLOP: Standard

TURN: This is actually close between betting and checking. A reason to bet is becuz you still may have the best hand, and you have outs if you dont, and maybe this guy will fold his six outer on that board, or you can alteast make him pay to draw to his 6 outer by betting(we both know hes never folding a pair)

A reason to check is you would hate to get checkraised with just a ten high flush draw and dirty straight outs, This turn card is also a bad card for you since it connects with many of the possible non pair hands the villain couldve called with on the flop. Lastly the villain is very unlikely to fold the turn which defeats the main purpose of semibluffing the turn. You probably are gonna have to hit your hand to win, so checking the turn and drawing cheaply is a viable strategy.

Im not saying that checking the turn is unequivocally better than betting the turn, but it is close, and I can see myself checking this turn more than betting it.

RIVER: This is a very close situation IMO between betting and checking, I dont like the idea of calling a checkraise on this river, but if you really think he will checkraise with lesser hands than you must call. I think I would bet this river only becuz I am against a very loose opponent who will still call me down on any pair hoping I have two high cards that missed this flop. Even if he always checkraises when he has you beat and you always call and pay him off, you will still make more money than you lose from all the times you pick up an extra big bet when he calls with a lesser hand IMO

[UCLAseetoK]

For reasons mentioned in above post, check the turn and take your free card... this isn't a great spot to be semibluffing, and the texture of the board will have you behind probably the majority of your fish's hands.

River seems like either a bet/call.... but maybe bet/fold? Hard to fold to 2/4 fish withouth specific hand situation reads.

[spydog]

The river bet is super easy. Someone with a higher flush will be scared that you will check behind and normally lead the river.

I would probably check this turn and fold to most river bets UI.

[SnglMaltScotch]

I would bet/call this. If he had a higher flush he would have bet it as Spy Dog said. You have a read that a C/R could be with a lesser hand so you would have to call. It is a pretty bold player that checks this with the intention of C/R on that board.