Bellagio ME hand #3

Push. Mads probably called because of the snowball effect going on, he's seen 2 limpers, could be calling with a lot of holding (Small PP, connectors, etc.) Hachem limps UTG, okay kinda weird here, has he done this a lot? Beware the UTG limper? Meh, just put them to the test and be happy to get called with anything except 88-AA. How's your table image, tight I presume (?) Makes thsi even better.. your stack doesn't look like a desparation play either since you still have 15BB's.

[Roman]

id make it like 12k and push any flop. Pushing makes no sense to me as it defines your hand much clearer, would u push with AA here?

Actually, I would push any hand I wanted to play in this spot because I got a stack equivalent to 8 big blinds w/ the antes. I don't want to tip off to anyone the strength of my hand.

[Roman]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, I would push any hand I wanted to play in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]
thats great and all, but that doesnt mean your opponents will assume this is true all the time.

[Philuva]

I think your short stacked enought that pushing and picking up what is in the pot is way more important than the small chance of winning a big pot with a set.

So your saying that you fear an all in raise of 29k rather then a raise of 12k thats 1/3 of your stack? because I don't.

Or are you trying to fool ppl like me and telling them to please call because I have AA and thus getting them to fold better hands that way?

[locutus2002]

I'd call and play for set value.
I think a fold is better than a push.

Here's why I don't like a push.

Hero has no ability to fold out the following hands: 88++,Ak,AQ. Roughly 70 hands, 3 opponents, or 210 instances that hero gets called and shown one of these hands. If villain's ranges are about 300-400 hands then you are getting called 45%-55% [1-(70/300)^3 ]of the time by one player if you only consider these hands.

When you get called by these hands your EV is ~12K (-17K EV from your original 29K).
In the best case you fold out all the other hands and win 12K for a net loss of -5K EV.

In the worst case villain calls you down with many hands that have substantial equity against 77 such as JK, etc.

I doubt any of the big stacks are going to feel too squeezed by the push, and more than one call could be likely.

[ZeeJustin]

Push.

[Roman]

[ QUOTE ]
So your saying that you fear an all in raise of 29k rather then a raise of 12k thats 1/3 of your stack? because I don't.

Or are you trying to fool ppl like me and telling them to please call because I have AA and thus getting them to fold better hands that way?

[/ QUOTE ]

I cant understand what you mean in this post at all.. could you please rephrase to make it a little clearer?

The more hands that we have beat that will call us, the higher our EV goes up so if you include hands like KJ,KQ etc... our equity is going to better then -17K for when we get called. Only with the range of 88+,AK,AQ is it negative EV. Most of those hands aren't calling hands but I hear they're tricky so its hard to say how often they will have those hands. And if there stacks are soo big whats to stop them from calling this w/ 66,55,44. I'm not sure what our equity is with FE and hand ranges but I think its definitely right around the 50/50 maybe a little higher or lower. But I'd rather take a 50/50 gamble at 30K then to sit around and get my money in with AA at 15K or 20K.