The old AK problem

[Ivanapolis]

I think that is a situation, which occurs very often; let's say you have abolutely no reads:

Paradise Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 7 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)SB bets, BB folds, Hero ?

small pot, let it go

[W. Deranged]

This is very close to neutral EV if you think about it:

If all your overcards are clean you have 6 outs. You need something like 6.5 to make this call totally neutral. But:

1. Sometimes this is a draw or a bluff or something like that and villain will check the turn and you might be able to showdown your hand unimproved.

2. Since it's still early you have some implied odds.

But...

3. You might be reverse dominated, so your outs are probably more like 5-5.5 than 6 (often this bet is coming from A9, A5, etc...)

4. You can't count particularly high reverse implied odds (like a full 2 BB or something) because you'll sometimes hit and lose and cost yourself bets, and because an A or K is an obvious card and you might not get paid. So I say you can count like .5 BB worth of implied odds.

So let's estimate that your effective odds with implied odds are actually 8 to 1, and you have 5.25 outs on average. That's damn close to neutral EV. Obviously as some of these numbers float around on either side you end up on either side of 0.

So I think making the wrong decision here never costs more than about .1 BB or so in either direction. So do whatever you want/vary your play/think metagame/use your reads and so on.

[toby]

How is it four-handed if only SB, BB and Hero are in the hand?

That being said I might raise and try a free card play, assuming MHIG if I catch an A or K.

[Harv72b]

And how are there 7 folds if it's 9-handed to begin with? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Honestly, what to do in this situation varies with reads (if any) on your opponent and as you vary your own play. You should be varying your play, by the way, even at 2/4.

Generally speaking, you shouldn't be folding in a scenario like this--SB is betting out with an UI pocket pair less than K or with something like J9s (or on a bluff with a worse ace or less) far too often to be folding while getting 7:1 & closing the action. So the question becomes whether to raise or call.

You should be using the raise here fairly frequently, especially if your table image is rock solid and/or SB has been really LAGgy & prone to bizarre bluff attempts. However, so many players have seen the raise for the free card play here that you are going to be 3-bet or stop & go'd on a blank turn pretty often. So just calling should be an option you use often, too, especially when SB is the type of player who wouldn't be betting out here without a made hand of some sort (and wouldn't fold if you showed strength).

[W. Deranged]

As Harv's post suggests, a good thing to realize is that this is the sort of situation where the math works out in such a way that you have a TON of freedom. Nothing you do is going to be horribly wrong for any reason, so usually these decisions should be made for auxiliary reasons: reads, table image, specific subtleties in board texture, and so on...

[olavfo]

Stellarwind's reply in this thread is a good read, and should give you some ideas on how to proceed.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Stellarwind's reply in this thread is a good read, and should give you some ideas on how to proceed.

[/ QUOTE ]

OMG Stellarwind posts good...

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stellarwind's reply in this thread is a good read, and should give you some ideas on how to proceed.

[/ QUOTE ]

OMG Stellarwind posts good...

[/ QUOTE ]

but infrequently in SS...