Blind steal - value bet or free showdown?

toby · #1 12-02-2005, 04:58 PM

Villain seems normal/decent. 18/5 after 60 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
5 folds, CO (poster) checks, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold, CO folds.

Flop: (6 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ...

Is this a clear value bet, check behind, or close call either way?

A better hand clearly won't fold, but that would have to be a slow-played K or flush draw that just came in, or a better 9 (which is basically all other 9's).

Worse hands that might call are lower pp's or an Ace.

jackdaniels · #2 12-02-2005, 05:12 PM

A flush and a king bet here. Since you were checked to, go ahead and bet. you can prolly fold to a c/r.

oxymoron · #3 12-02-2005, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain seems normal/decent. 18/5 after 60 hands.

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If the player is decent what A is villain holding unless it is Ax [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?

I check. If he is decent what will he call with that will not beat us and I see a checkraise on this board. If he has TT, JJ, QQ is he really folding on the river after calling the turn? I doubt it.

shark6 · #4 12-02-2005, 06:39 PM

I'd value bet/fold. Like you said, an A and lower PP calls. Anyway, I'm not sure 59o is a blind steal hand, even with the extra dead money in the pot.

#5 12-02-2005, 06:53 PM

I don't like 95o as a stealing hand. There is a good chance you get called somewhere with (not necessarily) dead money in the pot.

I don't think checking behind the river is a huge error, if it's even an error at all. The thought that many of the hands that beat you will checkraise and many that don't won't call make me lean towards chcking this one through.

oxymoron · #6 12-02-2005, 06:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd value bet/fold. Like you said, an A and lower PP calls. Anyway, I'm not sure 59o is a blind steal hand, even with the extra dead money in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree that stealing with 59o is bad and I fold pre-flop. I have a hard time believing the SB is decent as he didn't 3-bet to thin the field. So, he sucks or is slowplaying. I'm guessing slowplaying and I still check this.

Clarkmeister · #7 12-03-2005, 02:42 AM

Fold preflop. Bet the river, but this is way way closer with 95 here than if you had A9. This is a great example of how kickers frequently matter more with 2nd pair than top pair.

SackUp · #8 12-03-2005, 04:18 AM

Slim value bet. Lots of underpairs are calling you down. Would be nice with a better kicker.

Also, fold preflop. I still like 40-50% of the time and this hand isn't even close to being on my radar.

Harv72b · #9 12-03-2005, 04:33 AM

Fold preflop?? He's on the button, it was folded to him, and there's a poster in the CO...especially with tight blinds (and at least one of them is here), Hero should be raising with 100% of his hands.

I agree that this is a bet/fold situation. SB seems to be taking a WA/WB line, which either means a pocket pair lower than a 9 or some UI ace. I think he calls a bet with a worse hand more often than he check/raises with a better one (and should have raised the flop with a better one, if he had it).