Scenario

[Bosox]

Food for thought:

You are in the final 6 players of an online MTT with a very top-heavy payout. Let's say you're sitting with 100,000t on BB and the villain also has 100,000t UTG. The other players all have relatively insignificant stacks of around 40,000t. Blinds are a fairly significant 4000/8000 and all the small stacks are playing pretty tight. Villain has been playing a loose bigstack game, often raising out the smaller stacks, knowing they'll fold, especially preflop.

You look at JJ. The villain goes allin and the smallies fold around to you. Do you call?

points/thoughts/ideas/focuses
-villain has been aggro, but hasn't done this before
-if you win, you're almost a shoe-in to place first and definitely second
-so given a range of villain hands (AK AQ AA KK QQ TT maybe? i don't know) is it worth your chances of winning compared to the highly elevated prize money you're basically guaranteed if you do?
-with what holding of your own (TT? QQ? AK?) would you call this if not with JJ? What payout structure is required of each, (putting villain on maybe a specific hand for ease)?
-what about altering your or villains or smallie stack sizes? what if there was another player with 100,000t?
-what if there were 5 players? 8 (additions smallstacked)?
-other...

Even tho JJ is a nice hand here, I am in great position stack wise and don't want to jeopardize it here with JJ. I'd fold this one waiting for smaller stacks to bust each other out and moving myself up in the ladder. And also, wait for a better opportunity to arise. If it was one of the smaller stacks with lets say 40,000 that did this, i'd take use of my full time bank and probably call in the end.

AA and KK would be the only two holdings I would call with here. QQ is a fold too.

Nah, i'd fold this one. Maybe im a coward [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Matador225]

I think I fold JJ as well because of the top-heavy payout. QQ is a call though. Only AA and KK have me dominated and I think it is unlikely he pushes with either of these.

[LearnedfromTV]

Call. Blinds this high you have no choice. If he pushed AA or KK good for him but most of the time he wouldn't. That leaves QQ-99, AK-AJ if you want to be conservative, but the guy has been aggressive and he can increase his stack 12% if everyone folds; he's probably pushing more hands than that. Because of the stack sizes, the only difference between this and a standard raise is that (in his mind) he's basically giving up the chance of you playing back at him in exchange for not having to see a flop if you flat call. (He puts the other stacks are allin either way) That doesn't smell like AA/KK to me.

The biggest mistake you make is thinking that 40K is somehow insignificant. Yeah, you two have a decent lead on each one of them individually, but collectively, at least one of them will double up pretty soon and completely change the stack dynamics.

Edit: I suppose an extreme payout distribution could sway this to a fold, like 33-30-27-5-3-2 or something, but a normal top heavy payout, call and it isn't close. Even more so if 'topheavy' means there's a sizeable jump from 2nd to 1st, rather than just not much for 4th-6th.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I fold JJ as well because of the top-heavy payout. QQ is a call though. Only AA and KK have me dominated and I think it is unlikely he pushes with either of these.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you would rather call in a structure that is 5-10-15-20-25-30 and not 0-0-0-5-10-90. I think a fold in the 90 first structure is wrong.

[JustPlayingSmart]

I'm not sure exactly what you mean by top heavy payout. Does that mean 1st gets way more than 2nd? If that's the case I call for sure. If not, I probably still call, but I think about it more. In these situations, I like to think about the chances that I have pair over pair vs the chances that villain has pair over pair. I think villain would at least push 88-TT here, and I think it's less likely he pushes AA, KK, so I think the chances of you having an overpair are higher than him. Plus, I wouldn't be shocked to see ATs, and you're a big favorite over that too.

Finally, I don't make many laydowns, and I prefer not to lay down big hands when I have low amounts of chips relative to the blinds. In theory, villain should know you need a huge hand to call here, which might make him open up more, and the short stacks might just be playing the waiting game. All these facts make me lean more toward a call.