CR'd on turn by TAG - pay this off?

donger · #1 06-20-2005, 03:59 PM

Villain in this hand is 18/13/1.8. I really don't think he's playing KQ this way. Am I spewing by not mucking this?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG bets, MP calls, CO calls, Hero raises, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Turn: (8.70 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, MP calls, CO folds, Hero calls.

wackjob · #2 06-20-2005, 04:05 PM

Tuff call. I think your'e beat an awful lot of the time, but w/o playing with the guy a lot I'd probably pay him off. If my read was very strong, then sure, its an easy fold.

Catt · #3 06-20-2005, 04:20 PM

What does an 18/13 limp with UTG? I think you're good (or drawing live often enough) to pay him off. If he has 55 or JT, you're in trouble, obviously. But against any two pair hand (does an 18 VPIP limp Q9s or 98s UTG?) you've got like 8 outs. Pot is big; you're getting almost 14:1, and there's a chance that (1) your hand is still good and he is playing KQ or a combo of pair+gutshot / pair+FD this way; or (2) you're against two pair which is subject to being counterfeited when the board pairs. He could be putting you on missed overs with a flush draw (though he's really risking it getting checked through), he could put you on a lower pocket pair (JJ, TT, 77, etc.), etc. -- I think there is too strong a chance that you're good here to lay this down on the turn. River could be interesting if UTG bets and MP calls an non-[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], non-board-pairs river card.

me454555 · #4 06-20-2005, 04:23 PM

I usually toss it here. The call a flop raise, c/r the turn generally means a monster and tp/overpair is no good.

UTG limp usually means pp and I can't see him leading the flop w/89.

Jonny Melon · #5 06-20-2005, 04:48 PM

I am not folding this. You are ahead a reasonable amount of the time to a pair+draw type hand. You are drawing very live against 2-pair. Yes, your opponent may play TJs like this, or a small/mid pocket that made a set, either of which bodes poorly for you, but getting 13:1 and closing the action, I am calling here. You have more equity than that, even if MPs draw hits on the river.

Jon

cfjr2 · #6 06-20-2005, 04:50 PM

He called and then called the raise pre flop. Based on flop play I would think he has AQs (diamond?) or 55, 99, QQ, KK.
Trips you lose,
If diamonds he is on nut flush draw and you have to decide when / if river comes diamond
Otherwise he is betting TPTK which you currently have beat.

If I figure this correctly you are ahead as many times as behind, so it seems to be worth a call - or would you put him on more hands (or not put him on KK ?)

RunDownHouse · #7 06-20-2005, 04:53 PM

I think its safe to eliminate KK and QQ from his holdings, and most likely AQs as well.

Grisgra · #8 06-20-2005, 05:13 PM

You're boned, JT just crushed you. Pay it off, though, because you have aces. Duh.

Position · #9 06-23-2005, 04:00 AM

UTG TAG should have donkbet the turn with anything that beats your AA. He sure shouldn't be trying to checkraise you on this turn with the two other flopcallers between; he can't even count on you betting this turn once those other two called the flop.

I'm not about to fold AA. He's most likely holding a Q (plus a A, K or J); he's facing the field with 2 big bets cold to clean up his outs & find out if he's drawing dead (he can usually fold if one of the middle guys wakes up & 3bets).

Poldi · #10 06-23-2005, 05:01 AM

You must pay this off, pot is huge and you are not obviously beaten. JT or set i guess.