Protecting marginal hands - just don't get it

[MrStretchie]

This is about the section in SSHE on protecting marginal hands in large pots. Instinctively I understand it. However, when I try to work out the rough math, it just doesn't seem to work.

I don't have it here, but the example is something like
Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
4 limpers, SB raises, Hero, limpers call (12 SB)
Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB bets, hero should raise

So.. getting 13:1, obviously you should at least call with your pair + backdoor flush draw.. Due to the coordinated board, your hand works out to around 5 outs.

Their argument is that you should raise. The reasons are to fold out hands like A8, any ten or 6 (which would pick up an open ender if an 8 hits), possibly paired 9's, pocket 10's or J's..

However.. the most you could improve your hand is to 6.5 outs - if you count the two pair outs as full outs, and the backdoor as 1.5. So you increase your equity from 20.4% to 26.0%. If we ignore implied odds, that's an increase of 0.73SB. But you pay 1 SB to get it..

Now with implied odds.. If you don't raise, and we assume that devalues your hand, it means at least one other caller is going to the river. So let's say you get two callers going down to the river. You win 20% of the time, and to make it worst case, they both fold the river when you hit and they don't.
So 20% of the time you win the current 6.5BB, plus about 5 more (assuming the SB bets/calls down). The rest of the time you lose 1 SB on the flop and 1 BB on the turn.
Soo EV = 0.2*11.5-0.8*1.5 = 1.1. You expect to win 1.1 BB with this play.

Second case, you do raise. Both of those guys fold. So now you win 26% of the time, not 20, but your implied odds are lower. When you hit you win 6.5+2.5 = 9BB
EV = 0.26*9-0.74*2 = 0.86BB.

SO.. I believe S&M. I'm sure they know what they're talking about. And this whole 'calculation' was so full of assumptions, I know one of them (or more) must be wrong. What I'm wondering is: where is my gross mis-assumption.

To answer my own question: I'm thinking it's because I'm discounting the chance that I have the best hand after the flop. Probably if I Knew SB (or somebody) had a queen, this wouldn't be a good raise. But since I *might* have the best hand right now, or make a slightly better (but not TP) hand fold, it becomes worthwhile.
Is that it?
Whew..

[MrStretchie]

Hmm.. views but no replies.. always a bad sign.
Is it just that I'm too stupid for words?

OK. Pared down, my question is this:
Raising a marginal hand in a large pot to protect *doesn't* seem to be +EV, unless there is some chance that you either have the best hand, or will cause the best hand to fold, leaving you with the best hand.

It seems like in draw-only situations the added equity you gain on your marginal draw doesn't make up for the loss of implied odds, plus the extra bet put in.

Am I analyzing the draw-only situations wrong (see my original post), or is that correct that this play is only +EV if you might have the best hand already?

Thanks..

-Stretch

[Position]

<i>Raising a marginal hand in a large pot to protect *doesn't* seem to be +EV, unless there is some chance that you either have the best hand, or will cause the best hand to fold, leaving you with the best hand.</i>

Looks right!

There's a great saying in speed chess, "Always give your opponent a chance to make a mistake." Especially a costly mistake like folding a winner in a large pot!

[BillUCF]

I would classify this as a poor hand. You get 1.5 outs from the BD flush, and at most 1.5 outs from the two 7's. (your 7 may be dominated by a better kicker) That gives u a total of 3 outs. I wouldn't count the 8's or the BD straight possibility. With so many other players I fold here.

If you are heads up against the SB then I would raise and see what happens.

[MrStretchie]

[ QUOTE ]
I would classify this as a poor hand. You get 1.5 outs from the BD flush, and at most 1.5 outs from the two 7's. (your 7 may be dominated by a better kicker) That gives u a total of 3 outs. I wouldn't count the 8's or the BD straight possibility. With so many other players I fold here.

If you are heads up against the SB then I would raise and see what happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK.. but this is practically the exact hand out of SSHE. I could look it up when I get home and post the exact hand, but I think they're essentially identical. S&M say to raise it. The idea of the flop raise is to clean up your outs so you have ~6, not 3 as you suggest.

Now, perhaps your answer points at where my math went wrong, as if I had discounted the outs as much as you did, raising certainly proves better than calling (because you get tens and 6's and such to fold, so your 8s are good then.
That said, I don't think it's fair to (for example) not count the 8's as outs at all if you just call. When you hit an 8 here you win at least sometimes. The likelihood of a 7 hitting and someone having the case 7 with a better kicker is remote. Even if that Does happen, you'll often split. So discounting even half an out for that seems like a lot.
I think I missed the BD straight draw in my original post too.. you probably gain almost a full out on that by raising.
So even if I don't agree with your line, you're helping me to understand the raise. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]