How many hands before opponents stats are reliable?

kidcolin · #1 11-12-2005, 07:20 AM

Hi guys. My first post here. I just started datamining and using PAHud. So far I'm digging it, but I'm not sure when I can "count" on the stats. I mostly just use it to consider preflop decisions.

Tonight, though, I noticed a few times guys with a 10-12% PFR after 350-600 hands opening, and then seeing them showdown junk, like J9o or A4s. Threw me a little bit.

I know it takes a long time for stats to converge, but how many do you think is a good number on average?

#2 11-12-2005, 07:30 AM

About the same number of hands than it requires to be able "count" on your own.

pokergrader · #3 11-12-2005, 08:23 AM

J9o and A4s aren't junk...

In certain positions they are both acceptable raising hands. I think it would be possible for somebody to be a 25/12 and raise both A4s and J9o based on certain conditions.

And to answer your question, after about 100 hands I am pretty confident in the numbers.

kidcolin · #4 11-12-2005, 08:28 AM

I should've added more context. I agree they're not junk. They're not something I expect to see from a 12 guy UTG 5-handed.

Thanks.

sammy_g · #5 11-12-2005, 02:05 PM

The number varies greatly by stat. VPIP for instance converges much more quickly than W$SD.

Rudbaeck · #6 11-12-2005, 05:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I should've added more context. I agree they're not junk. They're not something I expect to see from a 12 guy UTG 5-handed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure all the hands you have on him are shorthanded? If most of them are from full handed tables he might be a rookie at the short tables and overcompensating. (Someone told him to open looser and he really, really took it to heart.)

And he might have read HEFAP recently and decided to play the occasional hand that is a marginal loser just to mix up his image a bit. (Pretty pointless on the net though, as the sharks are more likely to watch parsed statistics than the actual hand you showed down.)

Tilt? Drunk? Temporary (?) insanity?

Never underestimate the power of stupidity.

kidcolin · #7 11-12-2005, 06:14 PM

Yeah I only mine and play 6-max.

kidcolin · #8 11-12-2005, 06:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The number varies greatly by stat. VPIP for instance converges much more quickly than W$SD.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I'm interested more in the VPIP/PFR... I take a lot of the pop up stats with a big grain of salt. if I get check-raised on the flop, if there stats say "flop c/r - 40%" over 500-1000 hands, I'll consider that. With those decisions, though, I like to use my own reads and information from that given session (i.e. is he tilting? did he just have a big hand cracked? have I personally seen him get out of line?).