horse racing for novices

tomdemaine · #1 08-17-2005, 09:57 AM

not sure if this should go here but I'm going to be making my first ever trip to the races later today. I have no idea about horses and am looking for a way to reduce my losses as far as possible. Any help??

If it's any use it's the Nottingham racecourse in the UK.

sekrah · #2 08-17-2005, 11:19 AM

A very simple rule to throw out horses and narrow it down to contenders:

Never bet a horse that is coming off its best career race.

This horse is either A) Most certaintly going to be overbet by the general public, and B) Most certaintly going to go backwards in this race.

The only exception is if there was a long 5-6 week rest between his last race and now, and it was routine for the horse to take these long breaks between races.. If it was 2-3 weeks ago, toss him.

Same goes with horses coming off poor races.. Throw out the last race.. Compare the horses with their 2nd and 3rd races back.

Another tip.. Spot divergences in styles. If there are 8 horses, and 7 of them like to run near the lead, pick the one closer. If there's 7 horses that like to run near the back and close at the finish, pick the 1 horse that likes to lead.

You will greatly improve your chances of winning if you follow these two basic rules.

Runner Runner · #3 08-17-2005, 01:07 PM

Don't bet the exotics (quinella, trifecta, etc..) as the vig. is usually higher. Keep it simple, bet the win pool only and look for an overlay.

Favorites are usually overbet by the general public so there is rarely an overlay there. You need to find a horse that can win at a good price. Estimate a horses chances of winning by looking at his past performance. If you think his chances are about 20% and he his paying over 5 to 1, bet on him.

Always try and get a good price, you won't win as often, but when you do it will pay for your day at the track and more. Have fun.

playersare · #4 08-17-2005, 03:47 PM

these links are primarily for american flat races, but they should be good beginner primers in general.

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...Number=2144274

Sluss · #5 08-17-2005, 05:04 PM

I've been dabbling at the track lately and have developed this strategy: I find who I think is the best horse at a good number (through past times, track conditions, drivers, etc.). Then I bet them WPS. I have left the track everytime up money.

But I don't know if this is really a +EV strategy. Has anyone ever tried anything like this?

Runner Runner · #6 08-18-2005, 09:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I've been dabbling at the track lately and have developed this strategy: I find who I think is the best horse at a good number (through past times, track conditions, drivers, etc.). Then I bet them WPS. I have left the track everytime up money.

But I don't know if this is really a +EV strategy. Has anyone ever tried anything like this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting horses is all about looking for value. In order for a bet to be profitable, you have to be getting a better price then the horses actual chances. This is rare because the juice is so high (15 - 25%). Betting across the board like you are doing probably isn't best because one of the pools will have better value then the others, because there is less proportional money on the horse in that pool. You probably want to betting in the best pool only.

Indiana · #7 08-18-2005, 11:33 AM

I am personally addicted to betting on horses. However, I cannot find a way to consistently make $ doing it like I do on poker and boxing betting. I say to pick trifectas and hope to get lucky. Put the fav. horse with two other middle range horses and possibly box it.

Indy

canis582 · #8 08-18-2005, 12:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
have no idea about horses and am looking for a way to reduce my losses as far as possible. Any help??

[/ QUOTE ]

Going to the tracks is fun. Going to the tracks and losing a few hundo is not. Be sure to bet min. I usually stay for 6 or 7 races and generally make $1 exacta bets, boxed (which doubles it) for a total of $14 wagered.

tworooks · #9 08-21-2005, 11:46 PM

The key is to bet your money on the horse that crosses the line first.

nervous · #10 08-22-2005, 02:22 AM

I am still a rookie in this area, but I'd say stick with exacta and win bets. Simple bets. The place and show bets simply aren't worth it. Most of the reading of the horses' qualities' comes from experience. Look at the horses past races. Look at the caliber of the races compared to the one it's in. If it's in a 30k claiming race and it's last 4 races were 50k claiming's and it placed well in those, it probably has an edge over the other horses that isn't always seen by the general public. Also look for which jockeys are the best. Mark Guidry at Arlington Park this year is clearly the best jockey there and can show a 10-1 horse anytime he pleases as well as winning 32% of all his races. Usually these jockeys will be asked to ride the best horses, so that will give you a tip as well. Look at what the reasons were that the horses didn't win the past races. Was it because it died in the last furlong or that it was blocked in during the last stretch and couldn't make a move?

Most of horseracing is logical thinking.

Oh and don't bet much if any on the 2 years and younger maiden races where the horses usually haven't ever even raced. It's too hard to pick the winners, but if your program guide tells you the price that they were bought at and the jockey combo you have a small edge.

I'm sure theres a ton more and I just suck. I'm still such a noob, but I've been winning so far.

Good luck.