N. Illinois vs. Akron -- Am I missing something?

OK, here's the situation...after two miserable days out of 13, I am down a good bit to my sportsbroker and tomorrow is pay day.

I'm perusing the lines for SOLID bets only tonight to try to at least lower the damage...lo and behold I see that N. Illinois is favored by 14.5 points over Akron in the MAC title game.

Perhaps it's just me, but it appears that this spread is way off unless I'm just not getting some piece of crucial information (major injury for Akron, death, plague, etc).

Here's the case I present to you..and please, supply me with as much feedback as you can..

1. The Zips have won won three of their last four, including shellackings of Ohio U and Kent State where they allowed a COMBINED six points.

2. Earlier this season, Akron beat NIU, 48-42, on their home turf.

Two touchdowns and a hook seem like a gift to me...anyone agree or think I'm nuts?

By the way, how easy has it been betting home NBA teams this year?

Cheers!

"How about you give me the money you were gonna bet, I'll kick ya in the nuts, and we'll call it a day." Why don't you just save your money and give up sportsbetting? It takes years off your life as you watch desperately as a team fails to cover what looks like an amazing spread. If it was a good spread then the sportsbooks wouldn't offer it. On the other hand, go with Iona -2 tonight vs. Fordham large. $1000.

Wow, thanks for your advice Father Flanagan. Just what I was looking for tonight. I shake my head at posts like this.

Uh, Akron barely beat Buffalo (they were the worst team in the country at that time) and got shut out by Army. Shut out. By Army.

I doubt I will take this game. Akron has played better lately, but the win over Kent St. means little because Kent St. lost to Buffalo. Translation: Kent State blows royally. The Ohio win is OK. I watched the Northern Illinois game against Toledo, and my impression is that Northern Ill. and Akron are on completely different levels. I should have jumped on this when it was under 14 (I saw 13.5 yesterday); 2 TDs and a hook might be too much but will look. I most definitely will NOT take Akron.

Edit: I see the spread is now 13. I will be taking Northern Ill. large. G'night everybody.

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1. The Zips have won won three of their last four, including shellackings of Ohio U and Kent State where they allowed a COMBINED six points.

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Wins at home vs bad Ohio and Kent State teams doesn't really prove anything to me. Just my opinion though.

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2. Earlier this season, Akron beat NIU, 48-42, on their home turf.

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One can argue that this was their last significant win of the season. Let's quickly summarize what they've done since then. Lost by 14 at home vs Central Michigan. Lost @Buffalo to a HORRIBLE Buffalo team. Got crushed @ Miami Ohio. Got SHUTOUT at home vs Army. Won @ Bowling Green -- fairly impressive but Omar Jacobs didn't play and if I remember correctly, PJ Pope was playing hurt too. Lost @ Ball State. And the last two games were the ones already mentioned. So the conclusion I draw is that they are ok at home but haven't beaten anyone of significance since September and meanwhile have lost some games to some bad teams. NoIl meanwhile has improved in every game since their last meeting and with Garet Wolfe (future NFL superstar btw) finally at full health, I think NoIl definitely has the advantage.

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Two touchdowns and a hook seem like a gift to me...anyone agree or think I'm nuts?

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Last I checked the lines were NoIll -12 or -13. I'm on NoIl-12 FWIW.

Oops, my bad, they did beat Buffalo. Still doesn't change my mind though. Good luck tonight.

[Easy E]

If Akron opened at +14.5 and has been bet down to 12 or 12.5, was the original line over a key number too high, or was this intentional?

If Northern Illinois is such a strong play, why is the line moving the "wrong" way? Why would the public be playing so strongly on that side?

If there are sharps betting this number down... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

spread for me is at +12.5 on Skybook, so the free 1/2 pt bumps you up to that ever important 13. I'm on Akron.

Thanks for the insight folks! Much appreciated...this is exactly why I love this site. You all just likely saved me from laying it all on Akron.

Good luck to all!

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If Akron opened at +14.5 and has been bet down to 12 or 12.5, was the original line over a key number too high, or was this intentional?

If Northern Illinois is such a strong play, why is the line moving the "wrong" way? Why would the public be playing so strongly on that side?

If there are sharps betting this number down... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

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The %'s are pretty even -- 45/55 on Sportsbook now. I've seen the line go both up and down so I think there's sharp money on both sides. Looks like we might have to *gasp* make our own decision!