Final Table Conundrum

[soxfan70]

8 handed final table with the top 5 finishers getting paid; 4th and 5th basically get their money back. Blinds are 400/800, and I have roughly $8500, which puts me in about 4th or 5th place. There are no huge stacks at the table, and two very small stacks. On to the hand -
Two limpers to me on the button. I look down at 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and limp as well. SB folds, BB checks. The flop is 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB checks, BB pushes for his last $3500. All limpers fold to me. I now have roughly 7700, and the pot is $6700. My thought process is this:
1) This guy is a fairly solid player, and would make this move(considering his small stack size) with any two cards.
2) I'm getting close to 3-1 if I call.
3) If I'm behind to top pair, I have 10 clean outs
4) If I call, I'm closing out the action (no one behind me)
5) If I call and lose, I'm not crippled
6) If I call and win, I'm in very good shape to win this tournament.

My questions to all of you are these:

1) Do you agree with my thought process
2) What would you do and,
3) WHY??

I'll post results later.

[hurlyburly]

Did SB fold or call? This sounds like a pretty passive game if you are seeing limped in multi-ways with 8 left.

If he's a solid player, he wouldn't make this move with any 2 with 4 to act behind him, so easy fold. He'd also know that someone might try to keep him honest since he's giving such good odds here.

[2005]

OK, first of all, I don't like your limp. The stacks are definitely not deep enough for you to call to flop a set, and other than flopping a set, there are no safe flops for you. Pushing wouldn't be terrible, but I fold preflop.

I have contentions with your reasons #5 & 6. If you call and lose you only have 4200, just over 5 BB, that's pretty awful shape. If you call and win, you have 14k, which isn't even 20 BB. As far as I can tell, there isn't an amount of chips, save all of them, where you are in "good shape to win the tournament" b/c of the size of the blinds compared to the number of chips in play.

All that being said, if I see the flop here, I call b/c in order to win this tournament you're going to have to gamble at some point, and getting 2-1(you're getting 2-1 not 3-1) I think it's worth a shot.

I'm gonna presume you called and won and the guy got steamed and questioned your play.

Gavin Griffin

[West]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, first of all, I don't like your limp. The stacks are definitely not deep enough for you to call to flop a set, and other than flopping a set, there are no safe flops for you. Pushing wouldn't be terrible, but I fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Gavin. This statement runs counter to my intuition here. My thinking is that the biggest worry with limping here is that one of the blinds may push. But given that the BB has only 3500 left, if he pushed preflop I wouldn't feel too bad about pushing against him if it got folded back to me. So my biggest concern would be the chances of the SB raising (we don't know his stack).

But if the blinds don't raise, you're already getting 4 to 1, and you have the button against 4 opponents, with the BB likely to push if he flops anything - which your opponents who have to act before you on the flop also know. We don't exactly know the stacks of the other limpers, but it seems to me you're implied odds are very good here. Limping here sounds good to me (although the nature of the SB, and his stack, might change my mind) - can you convince me otherwise?

[West]

As has been mentioned, if the BB is solid he's not just going to move in with any two cards against three opponents. He probably has a pair, an 8, or maybe a 4. Pot s/b $7100 (I think you left out the SB's $), so you're getting 2 to 1 to call. It's about 2 to 1 against you hitting your straight, but you may also have the two 4s as outs, and if you don't, you may be ahead. You're not in good shape if you lose, but neither are you out. I'd call.

[Bernas]

But your main reason to play 44 in a multiway pot is for set value. Something you won't get if there aren't deep stacks.

[adanthar]

If the BB can really have any 2, you should call.

If he's somewhat reasonable, though, his most likely holding is a pair+draw, which has you buried.

[West]

Right, I'm just saying that it seems to me that in this particular situation, the stacks don't have to be that deep to play for set value.

[2005]

well, I was about to answer and you did it for me pretty much. You're not really getting set value here and against 4 opponents, you're not gonna have the best hand after the flop unless you flop a set very often. Not to mention this: Maybe 3 people go crazy here and 2 get busted and you move up in payouts. I'm not really one to play for moving up the ladder, but in this situation I think it's correct. Nobody has any chips and it's basically a card catching contest now, so let the other ppl go o war and try to pick up a big hand to get some chips in with.

GG

[2005]

woops, I didn't see the payout structure... hmmm, this might change my position, lemme think about it a little more and I'll reply again.

GG