Knowing the Odds

[Jorge10]

Heres something that ive been thinking about, how many numbers do you have to know? By that I mean if you asked me how big of a favorite are you with top two pair over bottom pair and an over card, I probably wouldnt be able to answer that. What I am saying is that I know basic odds like say what are the odds someone makes a flush draw with one card to come, general odds stuff, but nothing crazy. I wonder how much do you have to know to be a long time winner? If possible could someone tell me the most important numbers to know? I just wonder how much do you winning players know about numbers and odds? Do you have to be a human calculator to play at the biggest games? Just wondering...

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Do you have to be a human calculator to play at the biggest games? Just wondering...

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John von Neuman who was a human calculator (he could multiply 9-digit numbers in his head) was a lousy poker player. Draw your own conclusions.

takes more then math to beat poker. but obviously math does help

[RiverDood]

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Heres something that ive been thinking about, how many numbers do you have to know? By that I mean if you asked me how big of a favorite are you with top two pair over bottom pair and an over card, I probably wouldnt be able to answer that. What I am saying is that I know basic odds like say what are the odds someone makes a flush draw with one card to come, general odds stuff, but nothing crazy. I wonder how much do you have to know to be a long time winner?

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Think of math as a tool kit. You need some basic tools a lot. In home repair, this would be screwdriver, hammer, saw, paint brush, etc.

In poker, this would be odds of hitting a set w/ pocket pair; odds of hitting a flush w/ 4 to the suit after the flop; odds of PP winning vs. two overs, etc. Those types of odds are going to shape your bet/call/check/fold decisions in almost every session.

With the right basic tools, you can do competent work in most situations -- whether that's home repair or poker. What's going to distinguish you in either activity is expertise, patience, a steady hand, good judgment, etc. If you don't have those, you can have 1,000 tools and still make a mess of things.

If you do have good judgment, you probably can make a fine living without a full set of metric Allen wrenches. (Or the poker equivalent.) But if you become a specialized high-end craftsman, you mght want to keep adding to your tool kit -- as the need arises.

I'll offer a specific example. I called a short stack's all-in during a tournament a while back when I was in the BB with A2, even though I thought I was probably behind. I figured his bet was so small that the pot was giving me 2:1 or better odds to play on, and my winning chances were probably 30% or a little higher. My A2 paired and beat his A8, which was nice. After the tournament, I went and ran the numbers on twodimes.net to see that my intuition was basically right.

A few weeks later, I was playing in a ring game and played A2 to the river, headsup on a board with Axx against what turned out to be AJ. I didn't much like my play then and ran the numbers afterward to discover just how thin my draw was. The pot odds didn't begin to justify it.

I'll won't remember either number to three-digit accuracy, because there's no real need to do so. The first play works when the pot offers 2:1 or better. The second play almost never works.

[Brash620]

The most important odds to know are odds to make draws i.e. 5 to 1 to make a flush, 11 to 1 to make a gutshot straight, etc. However, to be sucessful you have to be able to tell where your at in a hand. So if you're holding top two and you can tell that your opponet made a flush on the turn you wouldn't want to call a bet unless you were getting the odds for your two pair to make a full house.

[StinkWater]

you don't have to know any numbers. you don't even have to think about what the numbers might be. realize that this is not a numbers game. of course, you need to have card sense.

[Er0si0n]

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The most important odds to know are odds to make draws i.e. 5 to 1 to make a flush, 11 to 1 to make a gutshot straight, etc. However, to be sucessful you have to be able to tell where your at in a hand. So if you're holding top two and you can tell that your opponet made a flush on the turn you wouldn't want to call a bet unless you were getting the odds for your two pair to make a full house.

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I think you meant 4 to 1 for the flush draw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[benkahuna]

Card sense is of course based in the probability of certain events occurring which boils down to numbers. It's just not necessarily an explicit understanding. And people that have card sense are going to be making more mistakes based on their chances if they do not understand the probability of certain events occurring.

I think knowing where you're at in a hand is more important than knowing probabilities, but knowing probabilities enables someone to be an even better player.

[subzero]

I try to remember general situations, like when I flop a set on a monotone board. If villain pushes with a flopped flush, should you call? Well, you're 2:1 to fill up by the river so you need better pot odds than that.

[Stickmn24]

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I think you meant 4 to 1 for the flush draw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Nope. While it would seem that it's 4:1, since there are a few cards of that suit on the board already, your chances of hitting are less than 25%.