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#1
12-07-2005, 03:12 AM
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Re: I can\'t be ahead
[ QUOTE ]
I just really don't see any hand I am ahead of here that he pushes this hard. Maybe AKhh, but once he bets the river the chances of that are reduced. [/ QUOTE ] not really. do you realize how raggedy this board is? Villain can hold the A-high flush draw and bet into you on the river hoping to fold a split once in a while. his range may be even wider - you don't know. on the turn you aren't ahead tons, but sometimes for sure, and your 6 outs are a good reason not to raise. on the river blank you should call. the pot is very large now and villain should bet A-high or worse if you are capable of folding an ace or pair here. granted the double-paired board discounts the AK/AQ value bet, but to an aggro player it doesn't necessarily matter. call, expect to win sometimes, and certainly enough. 
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#2
12-07-2005, 03:30 AM
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Re: I can\'t be ahead
[ QUOTE ]
call, expect to win sometimes, and certainly enough. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. Don't you think that you'll win this 1 out of 7?
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#3
12-07-2005, 03:49 PM
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Re: I can\'t be ahead
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] call, expect to win sometimes, and certainly enough. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. Don't you think that you'll win this 1 out of 7? [/ QUOTE ] This 1 in 7 math is all well and good for the river. But if we are in calldown mode after the flop our effective odds are way worse than the 1 in 7 we will be offered on the river in isolation once we get there. However, we are definitely seeing the river since we have 6 outs on the turn. Calling UI is a read thing.
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#4
12-07-2005, 04:38 AM
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Re: I can\'t be ahead
I really have a hard time believing that the bettor will continue to bet into me on the river with a hand that I am ahead of. Especially because of all the strength I have shown. He capped PF and I still raised his flop bet on a raggedy board, it seems that AK has to slow down sometime.
SGS
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