10% refund question

[AcmeSalesRep]

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Bet your whole deposit on a single bet. Let's ignore the 3/2 payout for BJ and assume that I win 49% of the time (this MORE than accounts for the loss due to not being able to double or split)...



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Actually it doesn't, that is the problem with your calculation.

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Just went to verify my numbers. I mis-remembered things slightly -- the 2% number is what no-double/no-split costs you (actually 1.91%), not the total house edge. So the total house edge ends up being 2.35%. But even with this HA, the rebate is a +EV situation for a single bet.

48.825% of the time you double up; 51.175% of the time, you end up with 10% of your bet. The EV is +$2.76.

So despite all your protest to the contrary, a 10% rebate is a +EV offer.

Acme