river question

[2PAUL2]

this is i hand i saw villain play about 10 mins previously on another table.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Button ($162.15)
Hero ($238.08)
BB ($99.50)
UTG ($34.97)
MP :#A500AF(villain)/ ($135.90)
CO ($111.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, MP :#A500AF(villain)/ calls $1, CO calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $4</font>, Hero (poster) calls $3.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $3, MP :#A500AF(villain)/ calls $3, CO calls $3.

Flop: ($21) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, villain checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $10</font>, Hero folds, UTG folds, villain calls $10, CO folds.

Turn: ($41) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
villain checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $20</font>, villain calls $121.90 (All-In), Button calls $101.90.

River: ($284.80) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $284.80

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
villain has Ad 2d (one pair, queens).
Button has Kd Qs (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: Button wins $284.80. </font>

so villain is 17/4/4 over 150 hands which is pretty tight for 6 max but as you can see he's capable of some big bluffs which brings me to this hand.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

UTG ($139.40)
MP :#A500AF(villain)/ ($218.05)
CO ($0)
Hero ($90.90)
SB ($30.50)
BB ($103.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP :#A500AF(villain)/ calls $1, Hero calls $1, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">villain bets $3.8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $12</font>, SB folds, BB folds, villain calls $8.20.

Turn: ($28) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
villain checks, Hero checks.

River: ($28) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
villain checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero?

<font color="black"> given the hand i watched do you bet this river?

if so how much and do you call if check raised all in?

thanks

paul <font color="black"> </font> </font>

I bet 20 and yes I'd probably call all-in, though I'd have to think about it...I don't think villain checks the flush twice here, and if he does, well then he can have my money. If he hit his gutshot, again, he can probably have my money.

In addition, if he raises all-in, he's already proven that it may not mean anything.

[4_2_it]

Every draw just hit home. I think a turn bet of $15 might have taken the hand down or given you the option to check behind the river.

As played, since villain has checked twice he either has nothing or a monster. His second best hand might be the straight afraid of the flush, so a check loses you the least. I think a value bet of $15 makes sense. If villain is a true TAG that just got caught bluffing, I doubt you will see another bluff soon, so you can fold if he comes back over the top.

[bizaff]

Based on your flop raise, he could put you on the flush. Is he tricky enough to check a flush twice? I'd guess he has an ace.

I'd value bet - half pot if you don't have a normal value/blocking bet size or more if you think he'll call it.

I would bet $25 and call an all-in.

Dumle

I think you are overestimating villain when you say he is a TAG. The first hand is really awful.

Dumle

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are overestimating villain when you say he is a TAG. The first hand is really awful.

Dumle

[/ QUOTE ]

I said "If villain is a TAG" in my comment (which only OP can evaluate since he was watching villain's play), but the hand is not awful if he gets a fold out of respect of his TAGgish stats. We all look foolish when we get caught bluffing........Though you need a couple of hundred hands before I would be comfortable assigning a strong read on villain.......

[2PAUL2]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you are overestimating villain when you say he is a TAG. The first hand is really awful.

Dumle

[/ QUOTE ]

I said "If villain is a TAG" in my comment (which only OP can evaluate since he was watching villain's play), but the hand is not awful if he gets a fold out of respect of his TAGgish stats. We all look foolish when we get caught bluffing........Though you need a couple of hundred hands before I would be comfortable assigning a strong read on villain.......

[/ QUOTE ]

in the first hand the guy with KQ (who is also a 19/10/4 decent player) timed down to 1 second bfore calling with KQ. im pretty sure he would of folded AA/KK so the bluff maybe isnt as bad as it looks. also i think they may both be regulars who know each others play.

paul

Still, I think it is chip-spewing to try a delayed bluff OOP against a button who bet the flop against 4 players, no? However, 2paul2 did say they were regulars and maybe villain had a good read on button, that he would drop a weak queen against this kind of resistance. In that case, I like the play more, but still think it is -EV.

Dumle

[2PAUL2]

ok i did bet 15 an he check raised all in.

call or fold?

paul