77 river decision

[@bsolute_luck]

*sigh* here we go and for all purposes you're line isn't wrong and i have not said so in any post, but am trying to say that if MP has a K, he played his hand fine. this is fine to have a long post as it IS on topic to discuss pocket pairs and how play such hands as this.

so i'll simply answer your posting and end my contribution to this thread as we seem to be getting nowhere.

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Wouldn't you fold something like KT when you're faced with a bet and a raise?

[/ QUOTE ] no. unraised preflop? hell no. i'm pretty much 3-betting this from CO/Button almost all the time. you think i'm scared of trips at this point? i've got better position and strong chances to have the best hand at this point.

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Because I want to take it down. A weak king is a far cry from a strong hand here. Why would you want to slowplay top pair/weak kicker in a family pot?

[/ QUOTE ] because i don't care about giving someone a cheap turn card when they're hoping for their 2 outer or runner-runner. there are basically no hands that should be calling the first bet in this hand given the size of the pot. give me a bigger pot, and i am definitely raising to win it right there.

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Because there are opponents to be heard from. I don't want overcallers. I want position on the turn

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i addressed this above: size of pot, super rag flop, and we're talking 2 people not 3-5 behind us. really, i think 1 of our main differences between your uber-aggressive and my uber-passive: you care about winning this tiny pot. i don't. if i lose to a 2/3-outer or runner-runner: it really doesn't bother me. it bothers you.

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1. Well, he DIDN'T fold, so I don't see your point. You will get a lot of calls from weaker hands here. Pocket pairs, two pairs etcetera.

[/ QUOTE ] my point is easy to see when you open your eyes: he DIDN'T fold because villain DIDN'T raise like i suggested (at least as far of the hand i can see). and i DIDN'T say bluffing this river with a busted draw will ALWAYS work (i hope i used enough caps for you). if you raise that flop, i'm folding against such an easy-read ABC player. same thing on the river: no way i'm paying you off. if i'm hero and i wanted to pay you off, i'll check/call at best: you know why? no worse hand is calling (sans read) and no better hand is folding.

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2. If I raise and he folds, so be it. In that case, I win the same amount whether I raise or call. And I NEVER think about the rake when I raise. You shouldn't either.

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this is just plain stupid, but i guess at micro-limit, it shouldn't be expected. let me translate what you just said: "I don't care i just pissed away my earnings just to ram my rivered trips simply because i did it." i believe i've already stated a case for not raising this river. if you care to take the time to read it, you'll see why this is unwise, maybe not today at these levels, but as you move up. maybe i didn't speak slow enough, so i'll try again: "worse hands typically won't pay you off, but you risk getting 3-bet by a better hand and you'll pay them off"- so not only will you contribute winnings to pokersites, but you'll waste more of your winnings when it was unnecessary.

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3. Probably not. And that's one of the reasons for raising on the flop. Again, you define your hand. Possible scenario: Flop: he bets, you raise, only he calls. Turn: he checks, you bet, he calls. River: he bets, you call. In this case, you don't raise, because there's a good chance he has a better king.

[/ QUOTE ] why on earth would the action EVER go like that? you honestly think if i have a K and since you so "defined your hand having a K", that i'm (as hero) going to donkbet that river? i'm check/raising you because i know you're so aggressive you'll bet this river when checked to and pay my better kicker off.

Conclusion: you can play this hand aggressively, but you'll lose weaker hands on the flop or get c/r by stronger hands on the river. you seem to like winning small pots. i like winning big ones and i like people like you who let me out cheap and let me win big. so thank you from a weak/passive fish.

I guess I wasnt clear enough. I was talking about that you lose value compared to when a guy with incorrect odds calls you instead of a guy with correct odds. So no its not untrue. You are talking of flush draws as if they are good in the hands of an opponent.

You said in your earlier post "Third, the book example has a flush draw present, so there is some value to be gained when draws call you down."
Thats a lie. When a 2-flush flops and someone has two of that suit you instantly lose 35% of the pot assuming you win the rest of the time. Is that your definition of "gaining" value?

[car ramrod]

raise pf.
Value bet river. Fold to a raise

[deception5]

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When a 2-flush flops and someone has two of that suit you instantly lose 35% of the pot assuming you win the rest of the time. Is that your definition of "gaining" value?

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If a reasonable opponent is calling your marginal hand down on a drawless board - they aren't drawing which means you are facing a made hand... You lose to a king a lot more than 35% of the time.

[WalkAmongUs]

This thread has made my favorites. I think its a really good discussion. I know when I get going playing 4 tables I will often raise the flop if I hit top pair for the reasons keetz is saying.

What I often forget to examine is how big the pot size is. This information is CRUCIAL.

Simply put:

Small pot: no need to raise with top pair on a ragged board such as this. You'll make more money from worse hands calling you. If someone draws out on you, no biggie, pot was small anyways.

Large pot: Now I will raise because I DO want to knock players out. I want to CUT their odds. I want to take it down NOW.

Huge pot: Now its time to determine whether our hand can be protected on the flop at all. We may have to wait till the turn to raise for protection depending on our position and the action.

ALWAYS consider the size of the pot. If middle pair isn't getting the odds to call and draw to two pair, letting him call anyways MAKES you money.

Remember...it ain't about winning the most pots, just winning the most money.

[aargh57]

Just wondering, do you always raise this hand pf in this position? How about UTG+2? MP1 is an auto open raise for me but here I don't have the guts to do it. Does it depend on the table (I assume it does)? This particular table had a two pretty loose players VPIP 40-50ish and others in the mid 20s-30s not to mention the blinds. I thought about raising but thought I'd get 2 or maybe even 3 callers. I didn't think that was a great situation to be in with 77. What do others do here? Perhaps I should set up a poll?

[car ramrod]

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Just wondering, do you always raise this hand pf in this position? How about UTG+2? MP1 is an auto open raise for me but here I don't have the guts to do it. Does it depend on the table (I assume it does)? This particular table had a two pretty loose players VPIP 40-50ish and others in the mid 20s-30s not to mention the blinds. I thought about raising but thought I'd get 2 or maybe even 3 callers. I didn't think that was a great situation to be in with 77. What do others do here? Perhaps I should set up a poll?


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The table has a lot to do with it, but also being first in. I am either folding or raising, and I don't want to fold 77. A raise will hopefully get this shorthanded, and if not you have your set to fall back on. This particular flop would be a perfect place for you to follow thru with a bet if you had raised pf. Villians may put you on a K and fold. If you get called on the flop and turn after representing the K, then you can safely check the river.

small PP are a good hand to limp if you are getting lots of players limping in. But if noone is in the pot yet, you have to raise 77. I may limp 44 or 55 if I thought others would limp behind. I think 77 has a better showdown value then 44 or 55, especially on this board.

1) it's hard to know what to do with 77 in early position. SSH advises, commensurate with the texture of the game, to play any pp if unraised.

at the end of the round, you had placed a bet of 1 unit, and the opposition had placed bets totalling 4.5 bets. you needed 4.5 bets to make this a break even money wager, at this point--but you also have to see a set on the flop, or youre bucking an 11-1 chance of losing your initial bet. you now enter the flop sporting a miserable EV, if you continue to make this kind of wager over any length of time, and do not hit the flop.

the flop occurs.

ignoring the pot structure, you led out. i guess you believed that the roughly 4.5 to 1 odds of realizing your set with 5 cards left to play somehow was still material. i also guess that you believed that, with this loose passive crowd you were justified in ignoring the odds. imho, that's a leak. in any event, you led into a superior board with 4 players holding cards; four callers to your preflop bet indicates, since each player has 4/50*2 chances of catching a king on the deal, that there are (4/50*2)*4 chances of a king being in play at the flop--that's a ~1.3 to one against you having the nuts when a K flopped. a check might have been appropriate, since you are UTG, but the bet does serve to isolate the probable competition. However, and to me what is of most concern, is that it also opens you up to losing both the turn and the river bet to a trapping player. it's true that slow playing KK might lose, yielding a free card, but you're getting even money on a 11 to 1 shot to hit--AND, there's only one player to my Kings--i'm feeling optimistic at this point, if i have them. i'm holding a K and you're betting into me, and i have only to put up a buck to your buck when you're an 11 to 1 dog?! gimme the money!

3) for this reason, if there's room for optimism when your opponent did not raise the flop, there's not much. that three preflop players folded leaves it questionable whether the passivity of the last one is because of bad cards or not. so, the turn. here, i would have checked. a passive response would have produced better indicators. the absence of signal from him is hard to interpret, as the above states. going into the river, you have a 22 to 1 chance of obtaining a set. you get even money to do so. i would probably have checked after betting the turn, to see what kind of life my opponent had.

i would not have bet the turn, however, preferring to check.
i would then have bet into his check on the river. i would not have felt good about my 77's at any time with that K staring at me. if i had held nothing, and seen your bet, i would have raised you going into the turn. and you would have been an idiot to run over the top. this means i get a free card on both the turn AND the river, while it cost me a 1/2 bet to do it!

in my opinion, the bet on the flop was grandiose, and very dangerous. you could have easily been sucked into several bets, as you were, and lost; i would mark you on my notes with your play of those 77's from that position, as meat for the mill.

to sum it up, as i see it: you have wagered into a massively negative EV; you have thoroughly ignored the position of the caller; and you have bet "aggressively" by leading with your chin. i'm gonna getcha.

:-|

[aargh57]

What a sarcastic, pretentious response. I agree that I made a bad play on the flop. However your calculations of the chance that someone holds a K on the flop assume that anyone with a K in their hand would play it. I believe that against a smaller number of players yet to act a bet would've been in order. Go ahead and mark me up as one of you're fish. I'm sure you'll take great pleasure in schooling me.

[Xhad]

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Of course I want them to make mistakes. For instance, I want them to fold better kings. That would be a mistake. Or cold-call with pocket jacks. That would be a mistake too.

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...and the last vestige of your credibility in this thread has just evaporated. So, you think people will call 2 cold with JJ on this flop, but they'll fold KT? Do you realize you're not even coming close to making a reasonable estimate of what your opponents will do here?

One huge error you (and many others) are making throughout this thread is assuming your fishier opponents have the same calling standards as you. Someone with a VPIP of 49 is not folding bottom pair on the flop or turn, and probably not even the river after the K pairs (which is why I'm in the "bet/fold the river" camp BTW).

77 is not a small pair. It is on the lower end of "medium pair". It holds up UI once in awhile; always assuming it will is a calling station leak, always assuming it won't is a rock leak.

The one thing you have gotten right in this entire thread is that betting 77 into a large field in early position is probably a bad idea.