Opportunity or Fool's Gold? (K2o)

[justT]

Be forewarned that I’ve been thinking too much about Gigabet’s stack theory. I’m not saying this is or is not a” Gigabet Dilemma” or even that I understand his theory. However, it has caused me to be more conscious of the “playability” of my stack which is what caused me to think during this hand.

A hand from last night’s PP 34K NLH tourney, blinds are 75/150 but are going up after this hand to 100/200, so my stack is ~17BB

converter

UTG (t8265)
UTG+1 (t5055)
UTG+2 (t1600)
MP1 (t585)
MP2 (t525)
MP3 (t195)
CO (t6290)
Button (t2875)
Hero (t3340)
BB : (Villain) (t1457)

Preflop: Shorty is MP1
Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Villain is BB

<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t150, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Shorty calls t150, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>

I’ve only been at the table for a couple of orbits, but I have a fairly good read on the players in this hand, especially the short stacks. I didn’t make much of the UTG+1 limp, probably not a monster hand, but if he showed some speed I’d certainly have to re-assess.

Shorty is a player I’ve seen before, and I thought she was solid, but her short stack play here has been horrible. I was almost certain her limp here meant she didn’t have a pair or AK/AQ, but I figured her hand had some promise, Ax didn’t seem right, I put her on a middle suited connector, say 89s.

The interesting player here is Villain. He’s pretty aggressive and he’s steaming, three hands ago his stack was over 6K, but he suffered a couple of tough losses. I really expect a push from him here if his hand showed any promise. I was getting 7:1 odds to complete, but I figured I was just throwing away 75 chips most of the time, especially with UTG+1 still in the pot.

Hero completes, Villain Raises Allin [t1457], UTG+1 folds, Shorty calls

For some reason I didn’t expect UTG+1 to fold. Lots of chips in the pot, two people allin, and I can’t go bust on this hand since the bigstack kindly folded. I slow down to consider the situation, it goes something like this:

My hand is an ugly K2o, but there’s a very good chance neither of the other players are strong. Are my cards live? The 2 is probably live (oh joy!), but I don’t know about the K. If either of them hold a K, I’m really in trouble. It’s unlikely Shorty has a K given her limp preflop, with AK she pushes preflop, with KT-K2 she likely mucks, she might have limped with KQ or KJ but those might have been a push as well.

Pot odds are good at 1.8:1

If I fold my stack I 16BB
If I call and lose I have 9BB
If I call and win I have 27BB

Is the chance to get to 27BB worth the risk of going from 16BB to 9BB?

[Something I didn’t notice at the time was the relative stack sizes. The three big stacks are big enough that they play basically the same against me whether I have 9BB or 16BB but at 27BB my stack would be similar in size to theirs.]

Thoughts?

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">

Hero decides to wait for a better opportunity; the pot odds just aren’t big enough
Hero folds

Villain shows J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Shorty shows Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Board: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain and Shorty split, Hero’s stack dwindles over the next few rounds while waiting for that elusive “better opportunity” to arise. Hero eventually pushes with 77 and busts out ~425th (field of 2200, paying 220) </font>


Thoughts?

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah.

1.) Don't call with K2o.

2.) Don't be results-oriented.

[Dave D]

The gigabet dilemma is probably one of the most confusing and generally difficult to understand theories ever posted on this forum. I would try to PM Giga for an answer. You'll probably get a couple more idiotic responses like above, ignore them.

Though I only have a rudementary understanding of the gigabet dilemma, I'm pretty sure for this situation to fit, you would need better than 2:1 odds to call here. Giga talks about the pot being much bigger than it is here, where you are -ev in the actual pot odds, but if you win you have +ev for the rest of the tournament due to your stack size. It also requires you not to be crushed if you lose, which you would be in this case. That's important, so no you don't call here.

edit: See this thread/hand: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...14&amp;fpart=1

My understanding is that situation is different from yours because:

1. Giga would have 11 BBs left after the hand, you would have 9.

2. Giga is playing an sng, not a multi. In an SnG you have to be more aggressive to win, and the blinds go up faster. It's akin to playing in the FT of a multi. Here, you are playing a multi where generally you are trying to survive longer.

In other words: There are less chips at Giga's tourament to be had than your tournament. So each chip is worth more to Giga than to you, thus making him want them more.

3. Before the 900 chip stack villian calls Giga, Giga has to call 310 to win 760. That means he's getting better than 2 to 1 (unlike you). Nevermind that it's an SnG and knocking someone out is huge. And that "block" he could win also means more as I previously said. He probably wasn't expecting the other guy to call, but that's not a terrible result for Giga either. Giga was probably expecting the other guy to fold, and again, what's key is that *300 chips for Giga doesnt cripple him*, he still has 17 BBs instead of 20, not that significant.

Giga's point is that even if he knew he was a 4 to 1 dog or something, but was only getting 2.5 to 1 or whatever, he'd still do it because of:

the +ev from having a big stack in an SnG, which matters more than in multis.

Knocking someone out

Losing doesn't hurt him that much.



Hope this helps.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
You'll probably get a couple more idiotic responses like above, ignore them.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only idiots here are the ones that try to justify an obvious fold with some theory that (maybe) has relevance only when the decision would otherwise be close.

[Gar Pike]

So, as I understand it, the Gigabet Theorem is that a slightly -ev play from a math point of view is offset by the +ev that a big stack gives you from a psychological point of view, and should be made if losing doesn't totally kill your stack and winning makes you the big stack.

I would look at how K2o plays against a couple of say, top 20% or 25% hands, which these players should be pushing here, given their stack sizes.

I don't know, they might even be playing a 30% or 35% hand, run the numbers on those, too.

Pokerstove is what other people on this forum have recommended for that kind of analysis.

I'm not sure how much of an -ev you can make up for by increasing your stack in this case, because you won't be the big stack even if you win.

That your FE increases dramatically when your OPP is out if he loses is the key to Giga's Theorem, and you aren't there.

I would probably need a top 15%-ish or better hand to call here.

Regards

Gar

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You'll probably get a couple more idiotic responses like above, ignore them.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only idiots here are the ones that try to justify an obvious fold with some theory that (maybe) has relevance only when the decision would otherwise be close.

[/ QUOTE ]

You aren't familiar with the theory, why are you even commenting on it? OP asked if the theory applies there, you don't cover that, so you aren't answering OP's question. You basically have no idea what OP is asking, so it'd be nice if you just didn't comment, that's why I called your response idiotic, it doesn't help OP at all and is basically SPAM.

Giga makes more (at least claims to) monthly than most of us earn in a year. Check out the Party Step 5s, he's probably there. I think his theory (and the amount of discussion of it on this forum over the last year) is somewhat relevent, and isn't just "some theory".



To the OP:

One thing I thought of later. Think of it this way. In Giga's situation, there are only 100 BBs in chips at the table (each player starts with 1000, there are 10 players, bb is 100) to be won. In your situation, two people together have more than 100 bbs. Nevermind the whole tournament. So each BB is worth so much less to you than him.

By the way, really sorry I copied and pasted the wrong thread in my original response. Here's what I meant ( can't edit it now) http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...14&amp;fpart=1

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You'll probably get a couple more idiotic responses like above, ignore them.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only idiots here are the ones that try to justify an obvious fold with some theory that (maybe) has relevance only when the decision would otherwise be close.

[/ QUOTE ]

You aren't familiar with the theory, why are you even commenting on it? OP asked if the theory applies there, you don't cover that, so you aren't answering OP's question. You basically have no idea what OP is asking, so it'd be nice if you just didn't comment, that's why I called your response idiotic, it doesn't help OP at all and is basically SPAM.

Giga makes more (at least claims to) monthly than most of us earn in a year. Check out the Party Step 5s, he's probably there. I think his theory (and the amount of discussion of it on this forum over the last year) is somewhat relevent, and isn't just "some theory".



To the OP:

One thing I thought of later. Think of it this way. In Giga's situation, there are only 100 BBs in chips at the table (each player starts with 1000, there are 10 players, bb is 100) to be won. In your situation, two people together have more than 100 bbs. Nevermind the whole tournament. So each BB is worth so much less to you than him.

By the way, really sorry I copied and pasted the wrong thread in my original response. Here's what I meant ( can't edit it now) http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...14&amp;fpart=1

[/ QUOTE ]

I know who Giga is. I read his original post. It was mostly nonsense, as others have said as well.

The kernel of truth at the core of his post could make a slight difference to a sophisticated player's decision in a marginal situation.

This is not that situation.

The meta-message of my very brief original post was "stop thinking so damn much. Giga's theory isn't even close to being relevant here. Just fold. And don't even look at the board afterwards, because whether you would have won or not is irrelevant."

There, happy now?

[schwza]

you will help your game immeasurably if you completely disregard gigabet's post on stack sizes. you're MUCH better off trying to learn things like:

[ QUOTE ]
1.) Don't call with K2o.

2.) Don't be results-oriented.

[/ QUOTE ]

someone is pushing for 10x, knowing he's probably getting called by shorty. i would fold KQ in a heartbeat after shorty calls, and i'd think for about 2 seconds before folding it if shorty folded.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
There, happy now?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.


I wish more people with low post counts would take more time to give meaningful responses to questions. Hence my reaction.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
If I fold my stack I 16BB
If I call and lose I have 9BB
If I call and win I have 27BB



[/ QUOTE ]

There is no question that 27BB's is nice to have in a shallow tourney, very playable.

But, I think there is a world of difference between 16BB's and 9BB's

I can steal with 16BB's without putting my whole stack at risk, I cannot at 9BB's.

With 16BB's I can raise PF and make a flop cont-bet and still fold with ~9BB's if I'm beat.

WIth 16BB's I can raise all in over a PF raise and call with a squeeze play and not dish good odds for the PF riaiser or caller to get involved with less than a premium hand, with 9BB's I cannot.

I'm not scared to play a 9BB stack, but I have many more options available with a 16BB stack.

Regards,
Woodguy