Bottom two on single suited flop against aggro

[McMelchior]

We're early in the money in PStar's 19:45 $10, I have 25% more than average stack.

Button has been playing aggressively and stupidly loose (like calling all-ins with pocket deuces) but gotten lucky to catch real hands at crucial junctures to stay a big stack.

I have come over the top of villain a couple of times and increased my stack considerably when he folded after opening from LP, and my image (if anybody actually cares) is probably somewhat aggressive.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1600 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP3
CO
Button (t59574)
SB (t26279)
Hero (t32850)
UTG
UTG+1
MP1
MP2

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, Button calls t1600, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (t3800) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t4500</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t9000</font>, Hero???

Does his min-raise say "made flush", "made top pair with flush draw", or "made bluff"?

I still have a good stack; do I fold and move on, call and push on a non-club turn, or do I shove it in now to put an end to his BS (with 4 outs if I'm really unlucky)?

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
Does his min-raise say "made flush", "made top pair with flush draw", or "made bluff"?

[/ QUOTE ]

Given your description of him, I'd lean towards the latter two. But also given that I probably go for a check-raise on the flop since he will probably bet and I want to blow him off the hand before something scary comes off.

Whether or not you want to reraise all-in now or wait to push a non-Q or -club turn depends on other factors. I lean towards the push because, well, I think I'm ahead and I don't want to lose what has become a pretty sizable pot-- especially since he has folded to your reraises in the past. If it's earlier in the tournament, I lean towards keeping the pot small in close situations, but your overbet has eliminated that possibility.

If he calls I expect to see top pair and a club (probably not a very good one). I'd expect any hand that hit stronger than yours to raise preflop (except Q9 or two clubs).

[McMelchior]

[ QUOTE ]
your overbet has eliminated that possibility

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No overbet.

It's PokerStars, and there's a t75 ante, so the pot is t4,875 before the flop.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
your overbet has eliminated that possibility

[/ QUOTE ]
No overbet.

It's PokerStars, and there's a t75 ante, so the pot is t4,875 before the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I blame the converter.

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, Button calls t1600, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (t3800) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t4500</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t9000</font>, Hero???

Does his min-raise say "made flush", "made top pair with flush draw", or "made bluff"?

[/ QUOTE ]

The opponent limped preflop, so this would be my first question. Did he limp to slowplay or did he limp because his hand isn't that strong? In this situation, a raise is almost mandatory by the Button with any playable hand except a head-up monster like AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ.

My second question would be: Is your opponent shown any capacity to be deceptive, tricky, thinking, intelligent? If no, then his play is likely to be very straightforward.

I think you can rule out the flush. If the button has two clubs, then this flop is a monster head-up. This is usually a no-brainer slowplay, possibly all the way to the river if necessary.

Assuming your opponent is a straight-forward, not too tricky player, this leads me to think of his holdings as:
a) a big pair
b) a big club
c) something else that catches a piece of the flop, maybe QJ, QT, Q9
d) It is possible that the opponent may have a couple of smaller clubs too, like 7c8c or JcTc, and possibly he is raising to protect them.

What are the chances that the opponent hold one of these hands and how would you proceed against the most likely holding?

With this limited information set, I would probably call and see what the turn brings. Most likely I would proceed cautiously. This is a dangerous flop for your holding, relative to what the opponent may hold. You are likely either way ahead or way behind.

What are the payout schedules and where do the other players sit in chip strength? These are other factors for consideration.

[kuro]

I don't like check-raising because you can't count on villain to bet a 3 flush board. I bet out like you did and then I push when they min-raise unless you've got some read. Villain is much more likely to have a flush draw than the made flush or top pair and a flush draw. Remember villain is aggressive so you shouldn't really be that surprised that he puts you to the test.

[McMelchior]

Villain's button open-limp is only marginally disturbing, seen in the light of his history with me.

Since I several times have snapped off his steal-raises it's not very likely his limp signifies a trap - I have proved to be willing to push when he raises, and simply raising and calling me when I come over the top would do the trick.

I'm likely to put him on a weak or medium strengh hand here - one he'd like to see the flop with, and not get raised off.

Probable trap hands would be AA thru JJ and AK/AQ suited or not. I'm ahead of anything but pocket QQ and AKc, and a virtual coinflop against AcQ. If I count correctly that's 42 for me and 7 for him, so that's not really a major concern here.

I think it would a mistake to allow him a free draw to a club, and further I gain no information from flat calling his raise. There'll at the most fall a club on the turn slightly more than one time out of five - the other four times little has changed (unless the board pairs), and I'm still in the same quandary.

The way I see this hand either I'm folding or pushing to his flop raise.

BTW, we're the two biggest stacks on the table, and there's approximately 90 players left with the tourney paying 180 - so it's very small increases in pay-out until the last two tables.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

[Gar Pike]

You're also behind 55 and 99, unlikely as those are, with no outs.

Given that you've shown a willingness to hit back at this guy, and that Villian has you covered by a lot, I can easily see him playing one of those hands like this, praying that you'll come back at him and that you don't have the made flush (althugh he'd have 10 outs or so if you did have).

This might just be a good spot to downshift, there are so many ways to lose all your chips. Any 2 clubs (54) QQ(12) Q9(6), Q5(6), 99(1), 55(1) are made hands. It's unlikely he's playing back at you with a draw, given your history against him, unless he's willing to go all in with a draw.

This is where I usually F/U the hours I've put into getting here. I'm in Aggressive Mode, and push, only to see I'm Way Behind, and 'bye-bye, Charlie' I know that folding is probably going to be considered 'weak' by some, but I'd rather put my money in at this point when I have a better chance at being ahead. Say, only 2 clubs on the flop or more outs for y/t.

Regards

Gar

[McMelchior]

55 and 99 are possible holdings here, but I don't see how they can be likely holdings.

If villian had flopped at set he would not be interested in giving me a cheap draw to a club. His minimum raise is giving me pot odds 4.2:1, or perfect odds for a flush draw, even if villian folds everytime a club turns.

Villian's actions makes perfect sense based on a wide range of possible hands.

Many aggressive players will represent a made hand on a typical dangerous flop (single suited, paired, sequential). If you automatically put your opponents on made hands each time they show aggression on these flops you're giving up tremendous equity.

I'll be happy to fold to a tight or timid players raise here, but I'm not happy about folding a strong hand on a dangerous flop to a player with a proven track record of bullish aggression and flaky looseness - at least not without furtner indication that I'm beat.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, we're the two biggest stacks on the table, and there's approximately 90 players left with the tourney paying 180 - so it's very small increases in pay-out until the last two tables.

[/ QUOTE ]

This fact sheds a whole bunch of light on to the situation. You have very little to risk financially. It sounds like perhaps there is very little difference in prize money between say 90th (where you are at) and probably double your stack (say around 45th as a guess).

In this case you have much to gain and very little to lose by firing away. Hopefully you will get a call from a lesser hand. Even if you are behind, you have cashed and presumably made a small profit already, and you still have 4 outs twice for the boat.