cards flow hot and cold!!

wanted to post this here so that next time i go on a huge run, i can come back here and look at this.

i was so happy three weeks ago, doing really well in SNG's and big tournaments... wait for good cards, bet big, hit flop or continuation semi-bluff. and just destroying people.

now i wait and wait and when the cards come i just get decimated. i'm busting bluffs big-time and then getting rivered.. i'm only a hair away from "online poker is rigged" but i've had too many huge runs myself and seen too much wierd stuff in my limited B&M experience.

[TripleH68]

I got crushed Monday night. Terrible cards and a couple terrible beats.

Next session please.

It will test how serious you want to be about this game.

I didn't really realize it until just now. When you are getting the good cards, KEEP PLAYING until you fall over from sleep deprivation. When you can't get the cards, just stop playing and try again later.

Last night I was doing really well and then quit because I wanted to go to bed while I was ahead.

Today I played and I was struggling all day. I couldn't get a string of wins no matter how many strong hands I played. I kept missing the flop. I ended up stopping, and I plan on playing again later.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't really realize it until just now. When you are getting the good cards, KEEP PLAYING until you fall over from sleep deprivation.

[/ QUOTE ]

The cards don't know they've been running good. If you're in a game you're beating because of the opponents, then yes, play as much as you can while retaining your edge. (Sklansky would say to prop up your eyelids, but that's a bit extreme IMO; many of us can't retain an edge in that condition.) But don't play just because the cards are running good, because they have no more propensity to keep running good. It just looks that way because humans discern patterns after the fact.

[ QUOTE ]
The cards don't know they've been running good. If you're in a game you're beating because of the opponents, then yes, play as much as you can while retaining your edge. (Sklansky would say to prop up your eyelids, but that's a bit extreme IMO; many of us can't retain an edge in that condition.) But don't play just because the cards are running good, because they have no more propensity to keep running good. It just looks that way because humans discern patterns after the fact.

[/ QUOTE ]

obviously this is 100% true but it's hard to shake the idea.

in hindsight, the cards run hot for sure. it's just you can't predict it ahead of time.

i just posted this to help me and others, especially beginners (don't want them too high or low with success/"tough times" - although you have to analyze the bad times. no one ever lost alot of $$$ playing too tight in low limit)

[AKQJ10]

I wasn't finding fault in your OP; if anything, I was just cautioning ItalianFX (or others who might read that post) against superstition.

[Holden97]

My own hot-cold story that made me scratch my head: a few weeks ago when playing B&M low limit two nights in a row - First night down 34BB; second night, up 75BB.

The results were very different; I did try to evaluate my play a little bit from night 1 to night 2 - I started limping more pre-flop and not playing medium strength hands as aggressively. I'm sure the cards hit me a lot harder on night 2 as well.

[ QUOTE ]
My own hot-cold story that made me scratch my head: a few weeks ago when playing B&M low limit two nights in a row - First night down 34BB; second night, up 75BB.

The results were very different; I did try to evaluate my play a little bit from night 1 to night 2 - I started limping more pre-flop and not playing medium strength hands as aggressively. I'm sure the cards hit me a lot harder on night 2 as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for sharing that! i like posts like this. how people are actually winning or losing (as opposed to all these "what was he playing?").....

how many people saw flop on average? the 4-5 of your basic loose-passive.... yeah, i've got away from raising with tons of stuff and watch position closely (in any rules/limits etc. and mid-strength hands are death in looser games .

more appropriate comment to no-limit, but i have to get away from thinking checking is really weak. i see the pro's check constantly. although you need to check-raise occasionally to keep your opponents a little honest.

rivers have been really expensive as i mentioned and i know it's wrong as soon as $$$$ goes in (i know better, but i can't help myself)

low limit, it seems like the flush (and to lesser degree straight) are king.... no-limit, seems 3 of a kind is king.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
My own hot-cold story that made me scratch my head: a few weeks ago when playing B&M low limit two nights in a row - First night down 34BB; second night, up 75BB.

The results were very different; I did try to evaluate my play a little bit from night 1 to night 2 - I started limping more pre-flop and not playing medium strength hands as aggressively. I'm sure the cards hit me a lot harder on night 2 as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Certainly constantly reevaluating one's play against the fundamentals is a Very Good Thing. Nevertheless, there's a high probability that your change in fortunes was at least 90% attributable to better cards, not better play. (And more limping or passive play are not necessarily improvements, although depending on the situation both could well be appropriate -- without knowing specific hands it's impossible to say.)

That said, all of us should strive to always be learning, so that we see our results improve over longer samples.