Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion

[locutus2002]

Its an easy fold for just about everyone.

All these stupid questions boil down to "How much risk are you willing to take for how much reward". This is a highly personal and subjective question.

Whether you are Greg Raymer, or an Internet wanna-be, if you went to the WSOP you love to play poker, and the possibility of only playing 1 hand in a 5 day event, cannot be offset by the possibility of winning a 50/50 coin toss.

Not to mention your wife will beat you like a drum.

[bobman0330]

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All these stupid questions boil down to "How much risk are you willing to take for how much reward". This is a highly personal and subjective question.

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This is not a subjective question, assuming you're playing to win money. There's a correct answer. Just because it depends on numbers that are very hard to calculate doesn't mean it's not an objectively determineable thing.

[SossMan]

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Its an easy fold for just about everyone.

All these stupid questions boil down to "How much risk are you willing to take for how much reward". This is a highly personal and subjective question.

Whether you are Greg Raymer, or an Internet wanna-be, if you went to the WSOP you love to play poker, and the possibility of only playing 1 hand in a 5 day event, cannot be offset by the possibility of winning a 50/50 coin toss.

Not to mention your wife will beat you like a drum.

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if 2/3s of the field knew how badly they played deep stacked poker, they would, and should, take even the AKo end of this proposition.

[locutus2002]

They (we) do know, and that is the reason they shouldn't take either end of the proposition.

TEV(T20,000) ~= TEV(T10,000) >>> zero

For most players the expected return on the tournament is about the same whether they have 10,000 chips or 20,000 chips, and it is much much greater than their expected return for zero chips.

I'm gonna fold, I don't wanna get knocked out on a 53% chance, that means 47% of the time I am out in 1 hand.

As for that 'I can't risk it all with pocket 2s' reply, would it make you feel better if it were QQ? Still gonna be the same odds. It's the 53-47 part I don't like, if I'm gonna push 1st hand I want to be at least a 2-1 favorite.

[einbert]

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TEV(T20,000) ~= TEV(T10,000) >>> zero

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I totally disagree with and don't see how you came up with this statement.

In a HU SnG with no rake, the "are you better than your opponent" question comes into play more, as you would call this in a heartbeat against a better player but against a much worse player (and there are deep stacks in the SnG), it might be correct to fold. Of course there are timeEV considerations as well, so it becomes a very difficult question.

Another factor is that in the WSOP, because the structure is only so slow (and not incredibly slow), (and because of the size of the field? yes/no?), the luck factor is up there. If instead the tournament were a six month long ordeal with an incredibly slow structure, such that luck is much less of a factor in future occurences in the tournament, would it still be correct to call here? Of course then it would depend entirely on your skill against the rest of the field, but let's say that you are on average exactly even with every other player.

About the exact 50/50 shot, I believe this would be a call as well. I think it would be great to have a shot at a double chip stack and a chance to get some nice variance under my belt in addition to the ability to have everyone at my table covered instantly.

If I call and lose, that's poker but I'm going to make every choice I can to maximize my cashEV, that is my goal here.

[einbert]

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All these stupid questions boil down to "How much risk are you willing to take for how much reward". This is a highly personal and subjective question.

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I'm assuming that you are neither risk-averse nor risk-loving, but you do want to maximize the amount of money you make on average from this tournament. So, I really disagree with your statement.

[A_PLUS]

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For most players the expected return on the tournament is about the same whether they have 10,000 chips or 20,000 chips, and it is much much greater than their expected return for zero chips.

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Now that is just mathematically untrue.

This is a common mistake that people make when attempting to quantify situations with a very high cost/benefit and a very low frequency.

Yes, someone with an average skill level will not make the money in 90% of the WSOP events they play, it is easy to say that someone with 20,000 chips who has a .02% higher of a chance to make the money has "the same expected value", but its not true. With an insanely deep event like this, doubling your stack "feels" the same in terms of $EV b/c you still have so much further to go, but increasing your chances of winning by apx .02% does in fact double your $EV b/c the payout is so large.

[woodguy]

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This is a common mistake that people make when attempting to quantify situations with a very high cost/benefit and a very low frequency.

Yes, someone with an average skill level will not make the money in 90% of the WSOP events they play, it is easy to say that someone with 20,000 chips who has a .02% higher of a chance to make the money has "the same expected value", but its not true. With an insanely deep event like this, doubling your stack "feels" the same in terms of $EV b/c you still have so much further to go, but increasing your chances of winning by apx .02% does in fact double your $EV b/c the payout is so large.

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Still doesn't mean your going to win does it!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

EV SCHMEV I DON'T WANT TO GO BROKE

edit: spelled schmev wrong the first time [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

ok, I'm done....

Regards,
Woodguy

[A_PLUS]

Instead of us repeating this type of thing for the 150th time.

Early edges

another