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#12
07-15-2005, 10:01 AM
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Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
I call. I also think that all but the very best players in the world should call here(but I think many of them would).
In a 6000 person field, variance is no longer a bad thing. If we are taking factors like "I flew out to vegas, I want to play for a few hours" into consideration, then go ahead and fold. If you are trying to maximize $$. You have to call. The fact that there may be higher CEV spots to put your money in later is pretty irrelevant, and if anything argues for a call. Its not like you need to get to 20,000 chips then you win, take all +CEV situations. 
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#13
07-15-2005, 10:10 AM
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Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
Very easy call there. I think a more interesting question is would you take an exactly 50/50 shot for your whole stack on the first hand. I think I say yes to that, too, but I'm not positive.
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#14
07-15-2005, 10:13 AM
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Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
[ QUOTE ]
I fold. I can't risk my tournament life with pocket two's. I folded them in LP in an unraised pot usually. [/ QUOTE ] What a non sensical thing to say. If the cards were reversed, could you risk your tournament life with AKo? What about 7h8h in the BB versus and open push of 2c2s and all fold to you? Also, this is not a situation where you only know your hand and the action, you have perfect information here.
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#15
07-15-2005, 10:14 AM
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Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
[ QUOTE ]
Very easy call there. I think a more interesting question is would you take an exactly 50/50 shot for your whole stack on the first hand. I think I say yes to that, too, but I'm not positive. [/ QUOTE ] I think the skill advantage would have to HUGE (which for me it isnt) for me to pass up a pure coin flip. The only factor that really matters here is 6000 runners, it totally overwhelms everything else. 10,000 chips, 500 runners, I fold a pure coin flip, but still call 22 vs AK
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#16
07-15-2005, 10:16 AM
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Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I fold. I can't risk my tournament life with pocket two's. I folded them in LP in an unraised pot usually. [/ QUOTE ] What a non sensical thing to say. If the cards were reversed, could you risk your tournament life with AKo? What about 7h8h in the BB versus and open push of 2c2s and all fold to you? Also, this is not a situation where you only know your hand and the action, you have perfect information here. [/ QUOTE ] Almost as nonsensical as "are you better than 53% of the field" from earlier in the thread.
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#17
07-15-2005, 10:19 AM
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Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs. A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a 50/50 shot.
AK [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is 50.01 22 black is 49.99 Check it out. EDIT  oops, A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], not A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]The ducks are 53/47 favorites. Regards, Woodguy
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#19
07-15-2005, 11:30 AM
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Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
There are a number of different issues here. Are you trying to maximize your chance of winning the tournament (every dollar is equal), maximize your expected winnings (dollars you lose hurt more than dollars you win help) or have a good run and maybe play against some champions (dollars you lose hurt much more than dollars you win help)? As people have mentioned, do you think you're better (avoid risk) or worse (love risk) than the field.
To simplify, assume you're average and want to maximize your probability of winning. It would take 12.5 all-in bets to win a tournament of 6,000 people. Getting 53% chances instead of 50% more than doubles your chances of winning, from 1 in 6,000 to 1 in 2,888. As an average player, you don't expect to get better than 50% odds for your average all-in bet; so you grab this one. Of course, you won't win the tournament doing nothing but all-in bets (although it's an interesting strategy to try). But I don't think that matters much in a long tournament. As an average player, you can evaluate each opportunity with "if I did this every hand until I won the tournament, what would be my chances of winning?" If you think you have better than 1 chance in 2,888 of winning the tournament after folding this hand, you should fold. You don't have to think you're the world's greatest player, just that you can hold your own against the best and can win consistently against the average. My guess is there are about 500 guys (some of them are gals, of course) who have better odds than this of winning the WSOP. You should also fold if you care about maximizing your dollar winnings or avoiding the embarassment of being the first guy eliminated.
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#20
07-15-2005, 11:48 AM
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Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
[ QUOTE ]
You should also fold if you care about maximizing your dollar winnings or avoiding the embarassment of being the first guy eliminated. [/ QUOTE ] On the other hand, if you think you have no chance of winning/cashing and just want to be able to tell your friends that you were the chip leader of the WSOP (if only for a moment), you should definitely call. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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