Another "moving up" question

[A_Junglen]

Well, I've been playing the 20-2's on Party, and 15-1 on stars with a lot of success lately. Below are my stats..you don't have to tell me it's a small sample size, but hopefully that doesn't make them completely irrelevant. Anyways the other night I won $2.2k in MTT's (1st in a 5.50 with 1545 entrants, and 2nd in a 10-1 with 176...also q'd for the 500k, and had a smaller cash in a 20-2). Before this my bankroll was around $1k...now it's over $3,000. So I'm trying to get opinions on whether or not it'd be wise to move up to 30-3/50-5's, (or even the 55-5 on stars). I was thinking maybe I'd try a few and if I whiff'em I could still move down and crush the 20-2's.

20-2 stats.
ROI 77.7%

ITM 54.5%

Total Tourneys 44

1st 20.5% 9
2nd 25.0% 11
3rd 9.1% 4
4th 2.3% 1
5th 6.8% 3
6th 11.4% 5
7th 0.0% 0
8th 11.4% 5
9th 9.1% 4
10th 4.5% 2

15-1's.

ROI 39.7%

ITM 46.9%

Total Tourneys 32

1st 15.6% 5
2nd 25.0% 8
3rd 6.3% 2
4th 6.3% 2
5th 9.4% 3
6th 25.0% 8
7th 3.1% 1
8th 6.3% 2
9th 3.1% 1
10th 0.0% 0

Again, I'm well aware this is an incredibly small sample size, but I would hope they would at least give you an idea of where I stand. Thanks again.

EDIT: Everyone suggests multi-tabling, I'm currently 6 tabling.

[spentrent]

Are you multitabling? Start 4-tabling the 55s and see where you stand in a few weeks. Put that bankroll to use.

No one here is gonna say anything except "insignficant sample, likely a winning player at the 22s, true ROI between 0% and 25%."

Only you can figure out if you are a winning player. You are rolled for the 55s (hell, take a stab at some 109s).

If you are not multitabling, try that.

[The Don]

I'm pretty sure you could beat the $33s or $55s... With $3k playing either is very reasonable. Staying at the $22s is probably the best option, the games are very soft and you can improve while making a ton of cash. I don't think it is necessary to ask the forum though... make your own decisions.

[ldavidjm]

I don't think you even know yet that you can crush the 20's yet. You don't want to hear about sample size but your stats are utterly meaningless. I've read so many stories about people that cashed in a big MTT and thought they were such hot stuff that they moved up like you want to do and lost it all. Of course this isn't "you" and "you're different" but really, you're not. For all you know you're on a heater. Play the 20's exclusively for a while and see how it goes. Then move up.

[the_joker]

I'd try moving up one level at a time. My ROI is like 90% at the 5.5, but negative at 20+2 (small smaple sizes). Of course taking shots is fun, just don't go broke before moving back down.

[mlagoo]

Just move up when you feel comfortable. You've got about eight billion buyins for the 33s, so why not move up to them first (you really should start 4-tabling at least.. giving up money otherwise), and, if and when you feel comfortable, move up to the 55s.

If you do poorly at the 33s at first, move back down to the 22s to build your confidence/bankroll.

It's not like "moving up" is some irreversible move. You can always move up/down at any time.

[A_Junglen]

I'm generally 6 tabling (3 20-2 and 3 15-1) when I play...and thx for the advice so far.

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]

Again, I'm well aware this is an incredibly small sample size, but I would hope they would at least give you an idea of where I stand. Thanks again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alas, not really. Over 44 tournaments (your sample size at the 20s), I've had runs with ROIs of 150+% and -80%; neither is representative of my real results. You're probably a winning player, but even that isn't something you can say with significant certainty at this point.

If you multitable, start mixing in 30s with your 20s. That's a nice, relatively low-risk way of finding out if you're ready. With your roll, I'd be willing to move up fairly quickly fully to the 30s if you find it comfortable. (Taking an occasional shot at something way over your level -- say, the 109s -- can be fun, though I wouldn't make a frequent practice of it.)

If you don't multitable, start, but stay at the 20s while you're doing it; you don't want to both be adjusting to a new level and to multitabling at the same time.

I'd put in some time at the 30s before you try the 50s, though. There's not a huge difference in quality between them, but going straight from the 20s to the 50s would be a bigger jump and probably a bit of a shock (though some people do it).

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm generally 6 tabling (3 20-2 and 3 15-1) when I play...and thx for the advice so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I'll bite. If you're 6 tabling, how is it you've only got like 100 tourneys logged so far? Have you only played SNGs for like 9 hours or something?

If so, shouldn't that tell you something about how much this sample size means with respect to your actual level of play?

[downtown]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm generally 6 tabling (3 20-2 and 3 15-1) when I play...and thx for the advice so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I'll bite. If you're 6 tabling, how is it you've only got like 100 tourneys logged so far? Have you only played SNGs for like 9 hours or something?

If so, shouldn't that tell you something about how much this sample size means with respect to your actual level of play?

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't believe this wasn't the first response.