Blind Steal ?

[Philuva]

Assuming a typical opponent in the BB, what is the highest valued hand that you have where you open raise and it is folded to the BB and you are hoping the BB folds?

Obviously, you want want action when you have AA and would rather he fold when you have 27o, I am looking for the threshold hand.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming a typical opponent in the BB, what is the highest valued hand that you have where you open raise and it is folded to the BB and you are hoping the BB folds?

Obviously, you want want action when you have AA and would rather he fold when you have 27o, I am looking for the threshold hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

you forgot position...thats pretty important...where are you when you open?

Barron

[Philuva]

I don't think your position matters that much. The BB is still getting a little over 3 to 1 and will be closing the action HU. Yes, he might cehck fold more often to to your flop bet if your open raise was from EP...

If you think it matters, you can give three answers:
EP, MP and LP.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, he might cehck fold more often to to your flop bet if your open raise was from EP...


[/ QUOTE ]

thats exactly it...the lowest hand i raise with from EP i still dont mind if bb calls as i likely have him beat and will quite likely take the pot on the flop.

if im in MP then the highest valued hand i raise and hope he folds is i guess KJs/QJs/KTs or QTs depending on the tightness of the players behind me since those are just about the worst hands i raise with from there. again, not a very intersting question.

NOW in LP (steal positions HJ,CO,BU) we actually have something to talk about...this is why i asked about position.

but even from a steal position i dont mind if he calls with virtually any hand i steal with because i will likely take it w/ a bet on the flop and i guess it is better to have overcards and call the c'r or call/raise the donk (assumiing its correct to do so) than have to fold to a bet or c'r b/c your cards are too low to draw to anything given the odds you get from the pot.

maybe if you provide some insight into WHY you want to know the answer to this it'll help in framing the question

Barron

[Philuva]

[ QUOTE ]
maybe if you provide some insight into WHY you want to know the answer to this it'll help in framing the question

[/ QUOTE ]

No real reason, just an interesting discussion with some other players.

[ QUOTE ]
if im in MP then the highest valued hand i raise and hope he folds is i guess KJs/QJs/KTs or QTs depending on the tightness of the players behind me since those are just about the worst hands i raise with from there. again, not a very intersting question.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think your EV with KQo will be higher that .75BB if you get action from the BB?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
You think your EV with KQo will be higher that .75BB if you get action from the BB?

[/ QUOTE ]

you can't really look at it like that because of the information available at the two times t-1 and t where t is the flop.

at time t-1 your EV of KQo is the sumproduct of all the wins/losses and probabilities associated with them given your open raise and having no knowledge of what happens after you raise.

at time t, you now KNOW the bb has called and your EV has to be adjusted for time t and is different than that at t-1.

so i guess the question is at time t what hands that you raised with at time t-1 would you have wished the bb folded given that he called.

im not quite sure how to think about it and it doesn't seem like a very useful thought process...if soembody points out why its useful then i'll put some more thought into it.

anyways, to answer your question, it might be that Et[KQo | bb called] > .75bbs because you have position HU and initiative and a good hand that still is very likely best...

Barron

Good point, I assumed the CO or button in my reply.



Tex

[HiatusOver]

Not sure what u are talking about in this thread Barron, maybe u misunderstood the question. The basic question is...if u raise from lets say middle position and its up to the BB, and he hasnt looked at his cards yet with what hands that u have do u want him to look at his cards with and what hands that u have do u want him to just fold without looking. My answer is JJ is the threshold and I know for a fact that it is way closer to a correct answer than KQ or QTs or whatever else u guys have been saying

[David Sklansky]

Sounds right to me.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure what u are talking about in this thread Barron, maybe u misunderstood the question. The basic question is...if u raise from lets say middle position and its up to the BB, and he hasnt looked at his cards yet with what hands that u have do u want him to look at his cards with and what hands that u have do u want him to just fold without looking. My answer is JJ is the threshold and I know for a fact that it is way closer to a correct answer than KQ or QTs or whatever else u guys have been saying

[/ QUOTE ]

so the question is with what hands do you want the bb to fold given you've raised and it folds to him without any knowledge of the flop. if he folds you win .75bbs so the expected value of the hand at that point has to be > .75bbs given a call to warrant you wanting him to call.

now im with you.

Barron