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#12
05-09-2005, 11:54 AM
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But can you fold KK?
It's level 1 in a £250 freezout tournament.
Based on the entry cost you assume all players are reasonably experienced, but have no prior knowledge of any players at your table. Big blind is 1% of avg. stack, no one is short. You pick up K-K UTG and raise 3 times big blind, hoping to narrow field but get some interest. It's folded to late position who announces a raise of 70% of avg. stack. He has only played 1 of the approx. 10 hands so far when he limped & folded on the flop. Do you give him the credit for A-A and fold your K-K? 
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#14
05-09-2005, 12:02 PM
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Re: But can you fold KK?
Fold preflop. The only reason he is going allin against you is because he knows the J is coming on the flop. He obviously has hired a hi priced ho who is currently under the table servicing the dealer. As a result, the dealer has engineered this confrontation that you are about to be faced with. Fold, and foil their nefarious plan. Once the ho leaves from under the table, resume normal poker playing. If the ho returns, you must go back into a defensive shell to wait out the impending doom someone is about to receive.
Nick
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#16
05-09-2005, 12:21 PM
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Re: Can AA be overvalued preflop early in MTT?
Here's an interesting stat. If you get all-in preflop AA vs another pocket pair 3 hands in a row, about half of the time you are going to be going home by the end of that 3rd hand.
However, the other half of the time you're going to have a huge amount of chips! (assume quadruple up from what you had) But if you aren't comfortable with being a 4-1 favorite preflop, you can always fold like Phil Hellmuth and wait for a better spot.
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#17
05-09-2005, 12:27 PM
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Re: Can AA be overvalued preflop early in MTT?
[ QUOTE ]
... I have just won the last 4 or 6 hands. Built my chip stack up from the starting 800 to about 2K give or take... [/ QUOTE ] Did you have to show down any of these hands? If not, BB may be thinking that you're simply an unabashed thief and is making a stand with his larger stack. Calling this all-in was the right decision. You were the clear favorite and should be happy to get your money in with the best hand. You were unlucky Villain hit one of his two outs but these things happen. Steve
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#19
05-09-2005, 12:34 PM
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Re: Can AA be overvalued preflop early in MTT?
[ QUOTE ]
Here's an interesting stat. If you get all-in preflop AA vs another pocket pair 3 hands in a row, about half of the time you are going to be going home by the end of that 3rd hand. However, the other half of the time you're going to have a huge amount of chips! (assume quadruple up from what you had) But if you aren't comfortable with being a 4-1 favorite preflop, you can always fold like Phil Hellmuth and wait for a better spot. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, that's not really true. Assume stacks of 1k for everyone. Assume AA for you, and 77 for opponent, every time. Hand 1: 80% of the time, you emerge with a 2k stack. 20% you go home. Hand 2: 80% of the time you are now at 3k. While the remaining 20% you are now down to 1k. Of that 80% that was at 3k Hand 3: 80% you are now at 4k, while 20% you are down to 2k. Of the 20% that was down to 1k: 80% of the time you double back to 2k. While 20% of the time you go broke. So (And I'm not going to waste time figuring it out exactly, but I'm close) 23.2% of the time, you go broke. Someone with time can figure out what percentage you end up at 2k, 3, or 4k. Nick
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#20
05-09-2005, 12:34 PM
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Re: Can AA be overvalued preflop early in MTT?
suited connectors, 76 or 87 I think is the best chance to crack AA.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Ac 1315602 76.83 391672 22.87 5030 0.29 0.770 8h 7h 391672 22.87 1315602 76.83 5030 0.29 0.230 cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Ac 1364608 79.69 343300 20.05 4396 0.26 0.798 7d 7h 343300 20.05 1364608 79.69 4396 0.26 0.202 you have a few more ways to make a hand with suited connectors.. the difference isn't huge but it's there.
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