Bubble...These situations are way too tempting

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing that's influencing me the most is that you're effectively also a shortstack, and if you keep folding the "real" shortstack could overtake you before you know it. He goes all next hand with JT, the BB calls with 8 5 and loses, and all of a sudden you're a favourite to go out next. Say the short stack went out next hand. With you're current stack you'll have very little fold equity when the blinds go to 200/400, especially if you don't steal before you're next session in the blinds. Win this pot and you can make a run at first, which is "where all the money is".

[/ QUOTE ]

ICM takes account of the whole "play for first, settle for 3rd" stuff - pushing this is not "making a run for first" - it's losing money. That's all there is to it. Have you not noticed the SB is actually shaving off 150 of his stack in this hand, so he's down to virtually a third of your stack anyway?

You really have some big leaks if you think this is a push. And I love to be at a table with people like you who go all-in with AQo to a big stack minraise when I have 2bb left here, because win or lose, you're handing me money on a plate without me even having to do anything. Think about that.

[ QUOTE ]
The thing that's influencing me the most is that you're effectively also a shortstack, and if you keep folding the "real" shortstack could overtake you before you know it. He goes all next hand with JT, the BB calls with 8 5 and loses, and all of a sudden you're a favourite to go out next. Say the short stack went out next hand. With you're current stack you'll have very little fold equity when the blinds go to 200/400, especially if you don't steal before you're next session in the blinds. Win this pot and you can make a run at first, which is "where all the money is".

[/ QUOTE ]
You almost make it sound like the short stack is a favorite despite the fact that you have twice his stack.

[tigerite]

More like three times his stack, zabt.

[sofere]

Sorry...its a $55 buy-in. So I think its pretty likely he'll call here a push here. When he was getting played back at previously, the stack to blind ratios were higher.

The more I think about it, the more I'm confident the fold was right.

Next question...if I was the player in the BB should I push AQ (what range should I push)?

One more question...What if blinds are going up to 200/400 next hand? Or if Blinds were 200/400 that hand?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

What logic would make you not push here?

[tigerite]

The fact that he needs to be a 65% favourite when called?

[downtown]

[ QUOTE ]
If pushed to I instafold here. Is there any way I can play this hand here?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you can't play it. I would instantly muck. The problem lies in the fact that you don't have enough chips to "play back" and make biggie fold without giving him great odds to call. This is explained well by tigerite, I just wanted to reinforce that you must fold here.

[kamelion44]

What's wrong with calling?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If pushed to I instafold here. Is there any way I can play this hand here?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you can't play it. I would instantly muck. The problem lies in the fact that you don't have enough chips to "play back" and make biggie fold without giving him great odds to call. This is explained well by tigerite, I just wanted to reinforce that you must fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wait. It can be right to make a play even though you know your opponent will correctly call. I don't know if this is one of those situations, but the mere fact that someone will be getting good odds does not in itself make a play bad.

[tigerite]

This isn't one of those situations, seeing as when he calls, you'd have to be a 65% favourite against his range. Unless you consider the $EV you pick up when you win, and can bully the bubble, is worth it. I personally don't think it is here.