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#41
11-18-2005, 04:40 PM
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Re: one pair, insanely huge pot
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I felt like I would be making a mistake to fold if I could come up with any reasonable way that I could be ahead, and I could, so I went all-in. [/ QUOTE ] i agree. results? [/ QUOTE ] UTG has A3o LAG has AdTd CO has KK?!? Running bricks. I get the final side pot, CO scoops the other pots. 
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#42
11-18-2005, 04:43 PM
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Re: one pair, insanely huge pot
If MP just wants to isolate the UTG donkey, why not push instead of min-raise and give hero (who is most likely on a real hand) such great odds to call? Not saying that you're wrong, just seems strange if that is the motivation.
Interesting thread. I would usually just fold my Q's here, but given the great odds to call and the remote chance you're ahead, I don't think it's automatic. But with the CO's cold-call and the fact that you really only have one 100% safe card on the turn (Qc), I still think it's a fold.
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#43
11-18-2005, 04:51 PM
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Re: one pair, insanely huge pot
[ QUOTE ]
If MP just wants to isolate the UTG donkey, why not push instead of min-raise and give hero (who is most likely on a real hand) such great odds to call? Not saying that you're wrong, just seems strange if that is the motivation. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't have too great of a read on him, but at one point he had won like five pots in a row, and tried to steal yet again on the sixth hand when he was in the big blind heads up against me (I was small blind then as the moron between us was sitting out). So while I didn't get to see his hands there, I made the assumption that he was playing trash hands aggressively, and was probably a pretty bad player.
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#44
11-18-2005, 04:55 PM
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Re: one pair, insanely huge pot
[ QUOTE ]
UTG has A3o LAG has AdTd CO has KK?!? [/ QUOTE ] All I can say is Wow. UTG, MP and CO all get immediately buddy-listed for this cluster-[censored] of a hand (especially UTG & CO). Is this kind of play typical of the Party $400's? If so, I think I need to forget about rakeback and just get back to Party.
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#45
11-18-2005, 04:58 PM
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Re: one pair, insanely huge pot
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I felt like I would be making a mistake to fold if I could come up with any reasonable way that I could be ahead, and I could, so I went all-in. [/ QUOTE ] i agree. results? [/ QUOTE ] UTG has A3o LAG has AdTd CO has KK?!? Running bricks. I get the final side pot, CO scoops the other pots. [/ QUOTE ] Ouch...nothing like getting the money in with 1 out....seriously, this is basically the reason that I thought a fold was in order...I think the times you are behind you have almost no equity .5% and the times you are ahead your equity is only 25% which is pretty close to the amount you've put in......there are very few times in my estimation that you have any significant equity in this pot.
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#46
11-18-2005, 05:01 PM
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Re: one pair, insanely huge pot
Although I agree that a fold is possible, there are definitely some scenarios where QQ has way more than 25% equity.
Holdem Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 6s 5d 3d cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Qs Qh 356 43.41 459 55.98 5 0.61 0.436 Tc Td 99 12.07 716 87.32 5 0.61 0.122 4s 4h 239 29.15 576 70.24 5 0.61 0.293 7c 6c 121 14.76 694 84.63 5 0.61 0.149 Edit: and look what happens on a blank turn even when the diamond draw is out there. Holdem Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing 6s Ac 5d 3d cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Qs Qh 24 60.00 16 40.00 0 0.00 0.600 Jd Td 9 22.50 31 77.50 0 0.00 0.225 4s 4h 5 12.50 35 87.50 0 0.00 0.125 7c 6c 2 5.00 38 95.00 0 0.00 0.050 Which is a decent reason to wait for a blank turn. If a diamond, 2 or 7 hits, you're probably sunk if you weren't already. But on a complete blank, your equity will go up a lot.
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#47
11-18-2005, 05:31 PM
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Re: one pair, insanely huge pot
The results you posted are in my opinion the absolute best scenario remotely possible for hero in this hand....there is no way he gets a situation better than someone with a straight draw, a TP bad kicke hand, and a smaller overpair than hero.....nobody even has an overcard to hero's queens and nobody has the flush draw...change that up a flush draw with just overcards...not even a pair plus flushdraw and watch what happens.
Result http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1353969 pokenum -h qs qh - ad td - 4s 4h - js jc -- 6s 5d 3d Holdem Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 6s 5d 3d cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Qs Qh 225 27.44 589 71.83 6 0.73 0.276 Ad Td 355 43.29 459 55.98 6 0.73 0.435 4s 4h 199 24.27 615 75.00 6 0.73 0.245 Js Jc 35 4.27 779 95.00 6 0.73 0.045 Things even get a little worse if the nut flush draw also has a pair....not pretty for hero...I think the above scenario is way more likely.
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#48
11-18-2005, 05:34 PM
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Re: one pair, insanely huge pot
Even in that situation, see what happens on an 8c turn.
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#49
11-18-2005, 05:38 PM
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Re: one pair, insanely huge pot
well of course hero's odds definitely get better.....but I was talking about a flop decision......a blank turn definitely looks good for hero but given the size of the pot and what is left in hero's stack, if he calls the flop bet, he's going to have around 300 he can push in on the turn. That's betting $300 into a $700 pot......if both villains call, that is $300 to win $1300 and they'd be crazy to fold their draws...you can't make them make a mistake here even under the best case scenario for hero...again, under the worst case scenario for hero he's smoked and drawing dead.
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#50
11-18-2005, 05:49 PM
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Re: one pair, insanely huge pot
This is all true. But I don't see the flop as push or fold. I think you can call. If the turn smokes you, you can still c/f and spend that $300 on a lot of beer. And if the turn's a blank, you can make them potentially make a mistake, say someone folds on the turn incorrectly or say an early caller expecting calls behind which don't come or whatever.
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